Peter Schiff: When Will It Hit The Fan?

Here's an update from Peter. 

The most important sentence in this video was about decoupling of the U.S. dollar and stock markets.

Normally, stocks go lower and the U.S. dollar goes higher. But once the decoupling of this correlation occurs, then the *you know what* will hit the fan. After that event, U.S. bond markets will plunge.

Is China Slowing Down?

These days, many commodity investors are living in uncertainty because they read on the internet that China, the largest consumer of commodities in the world, is slowing down. In this article I will take a look at the most important commodities consumed by China. We will see if our concern about China slowing down is validated.

China is already the world's largest consumer of the main industrial metals copper, nickel and zinc. In the energy space, China is the largest consumer of coal in the world. In construction, China is the largest cement (+ ceramics and plate glass) consumer in the world. In the precious metals industry, China is the largest gold and platinum jewelry consumer in the world. Indeed, a slowdown of China will have a large impact on commodity prices.

In the full version of this article I will go through the commodities listed above and we will see that China is indeed slowing down.

How Gold Mines Will Benefit From the Second Great Depression

During the Great Depression in 1932, gold went up while utilities (energy, oil) went down. Oil companies were almost all going bankrupt. What happened to gold mines then?

Every company has revenue and costs. Revenue from a gold mine comes from the gold they mine and sell. This asset was very precious to people, so gold mines benefitted from the gold price going up. Costs were going down as oil went down due to the worsening economic outlook during the Great Depression.

So, when revenue goes up and costs go down, margins start to increase a lot. This is what happened during the Great Depression and this will happen once again now.

To find out, go to: How Gold Mines will Benefit from the Coming Depression

Swiss Government Bonds Spike

Swiss government bond yields dropped to a record -0.23% on 31 May 2012. There is no reason why 2 Year Swiss government bonds should have such low yields (chart 1), other than the fear that the euro will break up or the Swiss National Bank will de-peg against the euro.

Go HERE to read the full analysis.

Chart 1: Swiss Government Bonds 2 Year

Gold again at François Hollande highs

I predicted already that the downtrend of gold in function of the euro was very odd. Everyone would assume that the "Hollande" effect would be beneficial to gold.

And today gold hit an all time high again, since François Hollande became president of France, as predicted...

If you're a U.S. citizen, your chance to buy gold is right now, as the euro is in oversold territory. 10 year U.S. government bonds are also overbought, with yields dropping 7% to 1.629%. Looks like a bubble to me.

Chart 1: Gold Price: Period after French Election

U.S. Dollar Bill Seen As Trash: The Story of John Davis

We all know cash is trash and the U.S. dollar will ultimately be worth nothing. It's ironic how this actually played out in real life.

John Davis, a normal average Joe, tried to help a man in a wheelchair, handing him some spare cash. In doing so, he accidentally dropped a 1 U.S. dollar bill on the ground. Immediately after that, the cops pulled him over for littering in public. He violated Section No: 613.06 of Cleveland’s Municipal Codes and was fined $US 500 for this act.

It reminds me of Ben Bernanke throwing trillions of dollars out of his helicopter, which is completely legal. But throwing a 1 dollar bill on the ground is a crime?

What is even more funny is that the cops see a 1 dollar bill as "trash". Hence: "Cash is Trash". It isn't as funny for Mr. Davis though, as he will have to pay up $US 500. He preferred not to pay it though...

Agricultural Commodities Break Down, Start of Another Great Depression?

When we take a look at history and go back to the Great Depression, we find that agriculture is a leading indicator for the economy. During the recession in 1930 we saw that agriculture prices declined very rapidly (for example cotton prices dropping 18% in just one week). A few years after that, the Great Depression initiated at full force with bank deposits being frozen. This started the Great Depression of 1932.

Today, the same is happening with agricultural commodities. Cotton dropped 10% in 1 week and is now down 20% in two weeks time. All other agricultural commodities have been very weak since the start of 2012 with the exception of soybeans.  The CRB index has also hit a new 2 year low.

Weakness in agriculture today is the evidence that the Great Depression is now being repeated. The only commodities that went up during the Great Depression were gold and silver, along with the gold/silver mining shares.

I will analyze 8 key agricultural commodities here: Agricultural Commodities Breaking Down, Start of Another Great Depression?