Fertilizer Prices Are Skyrocketing

Food prices are correlated to fertilizer prices, because when food rises (leading indicator), farmers will be able to buy more fertilizer. Then they grow more food and that will push food prices back down.

Buy Verde Agritech to bet on rising fertilizer prices. Trust me. 

 

Fertilizer price index can be found here.

 

Silver Miners AISC

Some silver miner ideas. 

Has Lithium Topped?

 

Some people say lithium will still go up in 2022.

Chamath says lithium will be the best performing asset in 2022.

In 2022, lithium carbonate supply will climb to 636,000 mt from 497,000 mt in 2021, but the demand will also jump to 641,000 mt from 504,000 mt.

Lithium seems to have a huge future.

Lithium is in deficit.

Rio Tinto projection.

Savannah resources projection.

UBS expectations.

Lithium battery demand will grow.

Mostly due to EVs.

Deficit will grow.

Lithium market balance by benchmarkminerals.

We need a lot of lithium to transition from fossil fuels.

Short term we could have a bumpy ride.

And all mines are currently already in production at the current lithium price.

Same for spodumene.

Even if lithium prices soar, this doesn't have a significant effect on EV prices.

That's because battery packs are very cheap.

A battery pack is 50% material cost.

Of that cathode material cost, lithium is half of that cost. LFP batteries are the cheapest so I expect lithium demand to grow faster as they use more LFP batteries in the future.

Costs have risen in 2022.

The EV penetration rate in China was supposed to be 10% in 2021.

Instead it is almost 15% in 2021 and going to 25% in 2022.

Lithium recycling will come in later. You first need to build batteries before they can be recycled.

However, Goldman Sachs thinks lithium will cool off.

Central Bank Gold Reserves Up 100 tonnes QoQ

Central banks bought 100 tonnes QoQ.

 

Aluminium Deficit Coming

Aluminum is expected to go in deficit in the coming years. Since steel is correlated to aluminum, you can also buy steel companies. Hint: ArcelorMittal.

China is slowing down: China Power Consumption Grows 3.1% in November

China is slowing down. 

FOMC meeting: Dot Plot

The new dot plot from the FOMC meeting minutes.

Old dot plot.

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Gold Losing Its Shine (07-Dec-2021)

 

Black Swan Indicator

The Black Swan Indicator from Dr. Eurodollar gives a good indication when to buy or sell the stock market.

 

CAPEX Vs. Stocks

CAPEX is a leading indicator for equity returns. 

Margin Accounts Vs. Stocks

The amount of money in margin accounts is a leading indicator for the stock market as we are living in a credit based economy. 

Zillow Rent Index Soars

Inflation is going to rise a lot.