woensdag 29 december 2021

Fertilizer Prices Are Skyrocketing

Food prices are correlated to fertilizer prices, because when food rises (leading indicator), farmers will be able to buy more fertilizer. Then they grow more food and that will push food prices back down.

Buy Verde Agritech to bet on rising fertilizer prices. Trust me. 

 
Fertilizer price index can be found here.
 





zondag 26 december 2021

donderdag 23 december 2021

Has Lithium Topped?

 

Some people say lithium will still go up in 2022.
Chamath says lithium will be the best performing asset in 2022.



In 2022, lithium carbonate supply will climb to 636,000 mt from 497,000 mt in 2021, but the demand will also jump to 641,000 mt from 504,000 mt.

Lithium seems to have a huge future.


Lithium is in deficit.


Rio Tinto projection.


Savannah resources projection.




Mostly due to EVs.


Deficit will grow.

Lithium market balance by benchmarkminerals.

We need a lot of lithium to transition from fossil fuels.


Short term we could have a bumpy ride.


And all mines are currently already in production at the current lithium price.


Same for spodumene.

Even if lithium prices soar, this doesn't have a significant effect on EV prices.

That's because battery packs are very cheap.

A battery pack is 50% material cost.


Of that cathode material cost, lithium is half of that cost. LFP batteries are the cheapest so I expect lithium demand to grow faster as they use more LFP batteries in the future.


Costs have risen in 2022.

The EV penetration rate in China was supposed to be 10% in 2021.


Instead it is almost 15% in 2021 and going to 25% in 2022.

Lithium recycling will come in later. You first need to build batteries before they can be recycled.

However, Goldman Sachs thinks lithium will cool off.






maandag 20 december 2021

vrijdag 17 december 2021

Aluminium Deficit Coming

Aluminum is expected to go in deficit in the coming years. Since steel is correlated to aluminum, you can also buy steel companies. Hint: ArcelorMittal.




woensdag 15 december 2021

zaterdag 4 december 2021

Black Swan Indicator

The Black Swan Indicator from Dr. Eurodollar gives a good indication when to buy or sell the stock market.


 

CAPEX Vs. Stocks

CAPEX is a leading indicator for equity returns. 


vrijdag 3 december 2021

Margin Accounts Vs. Stocks

The amount of money in margin accounts is a leading indicator for the stock market as we are living in a credit based economy. 

woensdag 1 december 2021

Zillow Rent Index Soars

Inflation is going to rise a lot. 


zondag 28 november 2021

Goldman Predicts Copper to hit $5 next year

Goldman Sachs predicts copper will rise to $5.39 next year and keep on rising in the following years. The average copper price of all forecasters is $4/lb. 


vrijdag 19 november 2021

Lithium Demand to Surpass Supply

Lithium demand is expected to surpass lithium supply in 2022-2024. This deficit will lead to an increase in lithium price. 

Lithium is also much better than hydrogen from an energy efficiency perspective.





donderdag 18 november 2021

woensdag 17 november 2021

Sprott Holdings Update November 2021

Sprott filed its new holdings.

Sprott bought: FSM (which crashed recently), Nucor, a bunch of uranium miners.

Sprott sold: RIO, XOM, FCM, Platinum, a bunch of silver miners.


maandag 15 november 2021

Carbon Taxes to Benefit Copper

Higher carbon taxes will push up the substitution curve and benefit copper vs aluminium. 


zaterdag 13 november 2021

vrijdag 12 november 2021

donderdag 11 november 2021

EIA and OPEC Forecast Oil To Plunge

The EIA forecasts oil to plummet. 


And OPEC expects an oil surplus in Q1 2022.



zaterdag 6 november 2021

$1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill Passed

The $1 trillion infrastructure bill just passed. This will benefit commodities like copper.

—$40b bridges
—$70b roads
—$11b safety
—$39b transit
—$66b Amtrak/rail
—$7.5b e-vehicle chargers
—$5b clean buses
—$17b ports
—$25b airports
—$50b water resilience
—$55b drinking water
—$65b broadband
—$65b electric grid
—$21b enviro remediation
—$73b power/clean energy

Roads and bridges: Headlining the 2,702-page bill's spending, roughly $110 billion of new funds would go toward improving the nation's roads and bridges, and investments in other major transportation programs.

Public transit: The package also includes the largest-ever federal investment in public transit, allotting $39 billion to modernize systems, improve access for the elderly and people with disabilities, and repair more than 24,000 buses, 5,000 rail cars and thousands of miles of train tracks.

Amtrak: The legislation marks the largest investment in passenger rail since the creation of Amtrak 50 years ago, with $66 billion earmarked for high-speed rail, safety improvements, Amtrak grants and to modernize the rail route connecting Washington, D.C., to Boston.

Broadband internet: Tacking on to billions authorized by last year's American Rescue Plan, the infrastructure bill includes $65 billion to bolster the country's broadband infrastructure and help ensure every American has access to high-speed internet, with one in four households expected to be eligible for a $30-per-month subsidy to pay for internet.

Electric grid: Though many clean-energy measures were cut from the bill to satisfy spending-weary lawmakers, a $65 billion investment will help upgrade the nation's electricity grid, with thousands of miles of new transmission lines and funds for environmentally friendly smart-grid technology.

Electric cars, buses and ferries: In addition to $7.5 billion for the nation's first network of electric-vehicle chargers along highway corridors, lawmakers have shored up $5 billion for zero-emission buses (including thousands of electric school buses) and $2.5 billion for ferries.

Clean drinking water: Following high-profile water-supply crises plaguing cities like Flint, Michigan, the legislation includes a provision for $55 billion to replace all the nation's lead pipes and service lines, representing the largest investment in clean drinking water ever.

Great rivers and lakes: Among the bill's $48 billion for water infrastructure improvements, about $1 billion is slated to go toward the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, a sweeping clean-up measure targeting toxic hot spots—or areas of heavy industrial pollution—around the Great Lakes region.

Airports: More than $25 billion has been allocated to help modernize America's airports—funds the Airports Council International says will help tackle more than $115 billion worth of project backlogs.

Road safety: The deal invests $11 billion in transportation safety programs, including a new program to help states and localities reduce crashes and fatalities in their communities, particularly among cyclists and pedestrians.

woensdag 3 november 2021

Fed Tapering

The Fed started tapering. This should start the bull market in gold since the whole narrative changes. Sell the news event.