maandag 31 januari 2022

Palm Oil is Indicating a Surge in Crude Oil

The palm oil price has made new all time highs and is a leading indicator for the crude oil price. As the palm oil price hits new highs, it is not economic anymore to add it to biodiesel and this will lead to a price increase in crude oil.

Crude oil is going much higher.



Gold is being repatriated

FRBNY gold deposits are shrinking, indicating a recession could be coming. 


zondag 30 januari 2022

Energy Vs. Population

More people means more energy consumption. What if energy gets cut off?


donderdag 27 januari 2022

dinsdag 25 januari 2022

zaterdag 22 januari 2022

Balance of Payments

The USD is dependant on the current account and capital account. Since the current account deficit is widening, the capital account needs to rise in order to stabilize the USD. If the equity markets fall with a rising current account deficit, the USD will fall.


Current account declining:

Capital account rising:


Stable USD:




This video explains it:



woensdag 19 januari 2022

Agriculture has just started

Since fertilizer prices are correlated to agricultural commodities (aka food), Verde Agritech has just started its multi-year bull market. With tensions in Belarus (Russia is occupying Belarus which provides 15% of global potash), Lithuania (supply chain disruptions) and Russia sanctions (Russia provides 50% of global potash), fertilizer prices will skyrocket.


Ammonia prices are trading below cost of production.



Natural gas is therefore correlated to ammonia and fertilizer prices.


Russia and China are already banning fertilizer raw material exports.


Fertilizer price index can be found here.

Potash is historically not that expensive when you compare it to the yield gain.
 
 
There is an optimal fertilizer to crop yield curve.


Video on correlation between natgas and fertilizers.






vrijdag 14 januari 2022

China Trade Balance Soaring

I've been telling for years that China's tourism sector has collapsed. Chinese people are now fueling their own domestic economy instead of spending their money abroad. This lead to a soaring trade surplus and the Chinese will now be gobbling up all the commodities with that surplus money.


 

donderdag 13 januari 2022

maandag 10 januari 2022

China EV car sales Vs. Lithium

China is powering the rise in lithium.


 

vrijdag 7 januari 2022