Gold Is The Safe Haven

During war times where GDP is expected to plunge 1%, you can expect bond yields to fall. As supply chains get disrupted, bank transfers get cut off from SWIFT, inefficiency will increase. Inefficient markets typically lead to inflation. 

In conclusion, we will get high inflation and low growth. Also known as stagflation. Real yields will be negative. This is a perfect environment for gold and Russia is already resuming gold purchases. I suggest you do the same before it's too late.

On the other end we have the worst performers: banks. They get a double whammy due to SWIFT (no more fees for transfers) and stagflation will hit their growth and yields.

The importance of fossil fuels

If oil and coal are going away, gas and renewables will need to rise a lot. 

Russian Commodities

How to play Russia. Except they forgot the most important commodity: potash.

 

Margin Accounts Deleveraging

Margin debt is declining and will continue to hit the stock market (especially Cathie Wood stocks).

Europe Energy Supply

Europe has diversification in energy supply.

Coal is still more competitive to natural gas.

Coal prices are set to fall.

 

Unless Ukraine gets invaded.

Coal energy generation will increase.

In summary:

Best Commodities During Rate Hike Cycle

During rate hikes you need to be in energy!

Fed Balance Sheet Maturity

A lot of bonds to mature. 

Gold Forecaster Index: Forget Gold, Buy Poo

 

LNG demand Asia

LNG demand is strong in Asia, which will put upwards pressure on natural gas.

HARPEX Index Container Rates

The HARPEX index shows the container shipping rates. When it rises, this means there is demand for container ships or it is a sign that there are supply chain problems contributing to inflation.

Natural Gas Vs. Ammonia Fertilizers Vs. Potash

To produce fertilizers, you need ammonia, which is derived from natural gas. This is why natural gas and fertilizers are correlated. Natural gas leads ammonia.

Fertilizer Vs. Natural Gas.

Ammonia is a leading indicator for potash.

Fertilizer price index can be found here.

FRED Removes Gold Price Charts

FRED has decided to remove the gold charts from their website.

https://news.research.stlouisfed.org/2022/01/ice-benchmark-administration-ltd-iba-data-to-be-removed-from-fred/

Yardeni lowers forecast for S&P

Yardeni lowered his forecast for the S&P for 2023 from 5500 to 5200 and gave a forecast for 2024 of 5600.

Newest:

Old: