Corporate Profits Vs. Government Deficits/Consumer Savings

Corporate Profits = Government Deficit - Consumer Savings 

 

EU Gas Storage Will Deplete in 2023

Remember that in 2022, Nordstream 1 was a big contributor to filling EU gas storage. In 2023, this will not be happening so EU will run out of gas. 

Remember that Russia accounts for almost half of EU imports.

Total natgas supply.

China buys oil from Russia

Russia has one big customer. 

Fed Pivot Vs. USD

When the Federal Reserve pivots, then you sell the USD.

 

How Long Until Inflation Declines?

It takes about 10 years to get inflation below 2% again. 

China EV Sales Boost Lithium

China now has a 30% penetration rate, much higher than the estimated 15% a year ago.

Old estimate:

New estimate:

Latest update: 732000 NEV wholesale sales.

Penetration rate:

FOMC Dot Plot

New dot plot:

Old dot plot:

 

Fertilizer Shutdown Map

Current status of fertilizer shutdowns. 

Update as of Jan-2023:

Copper Vs. Chinese Airplanes

Lockdowns will affect copper demand and lockdowns can be monitored via Chinese airport data.

 

Brazil is the best country for agriculture

Brazil is the fastest growing country for agriculture. 

This is why I invest in Natural Gas

China gas consumption is not going to decline. It has in fact gone from zero to 14 trillion cubic feet per year and will keep rising because they have 2X the population size of the U.S.A and Europe combined. 

This coincided with the U.S. shale boom which also recorded a rise of 14 trillion cubic feet per year. Guess what, that shale boom is over now.

Shale gas decline rates are accelerating. 

This has resulted in a spike in natural gas price.

The holy grail to forecast bonds

The taylor rule rate can be used to forecast bond yields. 

 

R star is a similar measure showing the natural real rate of interest.

Natural Gas and Oil: Demand and Supply

Since oil demand is going lower, oil supply will also go lower. However, it is important to notice that most oil wells also contain natural gas as a by-product. So natural gas supply will go lower. Now imagine what happens when natural gas demand rises and natural gas supply declines...

Wealth Vs. Happiness

Rich people are happy.

Truck tonnage index Vs. Stocks

Truck tonnage is correlated to stocks.

Gold Forecaster Index: Shortages Everywhere Except In Gold

 

Cheniere Energy LNG Exports Cutoff

The EPA just denied Cheniere LNG turbines due to pollution which will reduce exports of LNG from U.S. to EU. EU gas will skyrocket.

Oil Forward Curve Is Useless

We will not look at the forward curves again.

Russia Oil Price Cap Is Coming

We already know electricity will be capped at 200 euro/MWh, where will oil cap be?

 

U.S. dollar Vs. Emerging markets

Buy emerging markets when the U.S. dollar crashes.