Commodity Outlook

The commodities to buy are: gold, lead, cocoa, rice, sugar, oil, gas.

The commodities to sell are: lithium, tin, iron ore, zinc, palm oil, cotton, coffee, coal.

Oil and Gas Decline Rates

Where is shale oil and gas coming from?

Novilabs shows the decline rates for oil and gas. 

Permian oil:

Permian gas:

Eagle Ford oil:

Eagle Ford gas:

Bakken oil:

Bakken gas:

Haynesville gas:

Shale oil production is not rising that fast anymore.

U.S. oil production is peaking.

AECO Vs. HH natural gas

AECO historically followed HH natural gas.

How to spot a bull market in natural gas

Bull trends have strong volume up and weak volume down. 

Canadian Oil and Gas Decline Rates

Pieridae Energy with a decline rate of 8% isn't even listed. How dare they!

 

Russia oil exports collapsing

Russian oil exports collapsed, but rebounded again somehow.

Global oil product inventory flat

Oil product inventories are flat.

Global oil inventories declining.

LNG Price Cap

The EU put a price cap of 180 euro/mwh on natural gas and 35 euro/mwh band on LNG.

Oil well productivity peaked - Break even prices rise

Oil well productivity peaked.

EOG resources well productivity:

Oil break-evens are rising.

Gas breakevens are around $4/mcf.

Leading to oil and gas production peaking.

Permian production is peaking.

 

Seismic activity Permian basin

Another headwind to oil production.

Why nuclear is not an option

Nuclear plants cost a lot of money, especially at high interest rates. 

Gas is still the cheapest source to build.

But solar is emerging.

Global energy demand

Natty is winning from oil and coal. 

China oil demand soaring

China oil demand is up.

Seaborne crude imports were at 10m bbl/d or 1.3 tons/d or 40 tons/month.

Longer term.

Asia.