FOMC Dot Plot September 2024

FOMC dot plot September 2024:

FOMC dot plot March 2024:

Iron ore to drop below $80 in 2025

Bank of America says iron ore will drop below $80 next year.

https://www.mining.com/bank-of-america-sees-copper-price-surging-above-10000-iron-ore-slipping-below-80-by-2025/

India buying the dip in gold

Is this the gold bottom? 

Job hiring is worse than covid

The job hiring rate is worse than during the pandemic. 

China Diesel Consumption is Down

China oil consumption is down. 

Uranium is going nowhere

Uranium stays at $80. 

Diesel and gasoline demand

Will be flat.

Gold Fractal Breakout

Big breakout in gold coming.

Deficits are staying

Don't expect deficits to come down anytime soon.

China oil displacement with EV

EVs are taking over diesel demand in China. 

IEA Oil Demand and Supply

Oil is going into surplus. 

Capital Intensity Vs. Performance

Low CAPEX is better than high CAPEX. 

Chinese Steel Mills Unprofitable

It's not looking good for steel, iron, nickel and zinc.

Indian oil demand slowing

Indian oil demand is slowing.

Russia to buy 30 tonnes of gold in September 2024

Russia to start buying gold. 

Job Opening Dropping

More data suggesting higher unemployment rate.

Gold Forecaster Index: Buy Gold, Avoid Everything Else (04-Sep-2024)

 

Unemployment Rate Vs. Gold/Silver Ratio

The Unemployment Rate is correlated with the Gold/Silver Ratio.

 

Central Banks Buying Gold

Central banks do like gold. 

What oil supply disruptions?

There are no oil supply disruptions in the Middle East... 

What if oil on water inventories rebound?

Unemployment Rate Vs. Breadth in US States Unemployment Rate

The unemployment data can be forecasted using the breadth in US states unemployment data. 

Sprott Update

Latest update on Sprott Inc. holdings:

Buys: IAM Gold, Solaris Resources, Kinross

Sells: Seabridge Gold, Triple Flag, Gold Fields, Equinox

Gold as a percentage of global assets

Nobody is invested in gold yet. 

Libya closes oil fields

Libya to close oil fields. Less oil supply leads to inflation and lower GDP, which is bullish gold.

Oil's path.

Population Growth Vs. Gold

Lower population growth leads to a higher gold price. 

A declining population leads to lower labor force participation (more old people and less young people). Lower labor force leads to higher debt to GDP.

And finally, higher debt to GDP leads to higher gold prices.

Path of Rate Cuts

The market is pricing in rate cuts, which is bullish gold. 

Lumber Slumber

Lumber mills need to shut down.

Gulf Countries Start Using Gold

This could be a very important trend change. Gulf countries start using gold for oil trade with Russia. Oil market is 15x size of gold market. Demand for gold will skyrocket.

China selling U.S. bonds and buying gold

China selling U.S. bonds and buying gold. 

Gold: stock to flow

Gold is money.

Gold demand

Gold demand is still rising.

Gold ETF flows are positive.

Commodity Forecasts

 Some commodity forecasts.

Rise of the gold miners

Gold to 3000 and oil to 60 should do it.

Gold Forecaster Index: 5 Rate Cuts to Boost Gold

 

Oil Vs. Yield Curve

An inverted yield curve is not good for oil.