If there is one evidence of inflation, then it's in food. All have been going higher since the stimulus in March 2020. The population hasn't been growing that fast, it's all because of money printing.
woensdag 30 december 2020
dinsdag 22 december 2020
maandag 21 december 2020
Copper Deficit to Grow
It is expected that the copper price will rise in the coming decade. To bet on this you can buy Nova Royalties, Oroco Resource or Deep-South Resources.
vrijdag 18 december 2020
China is Booming!
China power consumption for November 2020 was up 9.4%, a record high for the year.
donderdag 17 december 2020
Corporations are flooded with cash
Corporations have record amounts of cash, which will spur more buybacks.
Earnings are expected to balloon.
woensdag 16 december 2020
dinsdag 15 december 2020
Yardeni Ups Forecast on the Economy
Yardeni upped his forecast again from 4000 on the S&P500 to 4300 on the S&P500.
Old:
New:
U.S. Treasury Maturity Schedule
We know the Fed won't let these mature, because then they would have losses at rising bond yields. These will need to be rolled over at higher bond yields. Or they need to print more money to buy them up.
For more info read my article.
maandag 14 december 2020
Bank Stocks Vs. Yield Curve
The yield curve decides the net interest margin for banks. A rise in the yield curve will make banks more profitable and leads to a rise in the share price of bank stocks.
zaterdag 12 december 2020
woensdag 9 december 2020
vrijdag 4 december 2020
donderdag 3 december 2020
woensdag 2 december 2020
Oil Inventory Vs. Oil Price
When oil inventories rise, this means there is a glut in oil. The oil price will go down.
Macro-economic indicators from the EIA should be monitored.
- Refinery net production
- Weekly oil production
- Weekly oil stock levels
- Distillate demand
- Global oil supply and demand
- Baker Hughes rig count
- Weekly supply of petroleum products
Make sure to check the GDP outlook from the Atlanta Fed.
dinsdag 1 december 2020
maandag 30 november 2020
vrijdag 27 november 2020
Central bank gold reserves steady
The latest Q3 report of central bank reserves shows a steady number.
dinsdag 24 november 2020
Yardeni Ups Forecasts for Stock Market
Yardeni just upped his forecast on the S&P from this:
to this:
Oil Backwardation Vs. Oil Price
When the oil market goes into backwardation, the oil price is likely to go higher.
Oil just went into backwardation in December 2020, this means that the oil market is in tight supply. Advisable to get into oil stocks like XOM, RDS.
In the chart below we can see how the oil price correlates to the futures spread.
vrijdag 20 november 2020
maandag 16 november 2020
zaterdag 14 november 2020
Sprott Miners Update Q3 2020
Sprott Inc. has deleted a few miners.
- Avino Silver, because that company went on strike.
- Alexco, because of overvaluation.
- Galiano Gold, because costs were rising too much.
- Harmony Gold, because they are in South Africa with high costs.
- Kirkland Gold, because of overvaluation.
- Yamana Gold, because of overvaluation.
- Hecla Mining, because of overvaluation.
Sprott Inc. added following miners:
- Mag Silver, to get exposure to silver.
- Osisko Gold, because they are the cheapest royalty out there.
- Silvercrest Metals, because exposure to high grade silver.
- Barrick Gold, because Warren Buffett believes in it.
- Kinross Gold, because the PE ratio is below 10.
- Exxon Mobil, because it is very cheap.
maandag 9 november 2020
woensdag 4 november 2020
Presidential Elections
Probably contested election.
Trump wins: 4 more years of this.
Biden wins:
- Clean energy: silver higher on EV, solar demand
- China deals: buy Chinese stocks
- Oil sector bust, net energy thermodynamic collapse
- Tax corporations: stocks under pressure, lower GDP
- Universal basic income: consumer inflation
- More stimulus: consumer inflation
- USD crashing on higher debt
dinsdag 3 november 2020
maandag 2 november 2020
Market Capitalization Vs. Net Inflow of Money
When money flows into an asset, the price goes up. This can be quantified by the following formula.
C = (A+B)^2 / A^2
Where:
A = initial market cap
B = net inflow of money
C = price multiplication
So if the amount of investors money going into gold doubles, the market cap four folds.
For example:
A = 1 trillion
B = 1 trillion
C = 4
maandag 26 oktober 2020
Fintech is the future
The traditional banking system is losing status while fintech startups are growing. This also includes crypto solutions.
vrijdag 23 oktober 2020
donderdag 22 oktober 2020
Keith Neumeyer Jacks Up Silver Prices
Keith Neumeyer just jacked up silver prices from $28/ounce to $30/ounce.
woensdag 21 oktober 2020
maandag 19 oktober 2020
China Power Consumption Rises 7.2% in September 2020
China is recovering both in power consumption and GDP growth.
vrijdag 16 oktober 2020
Oil Demand Is Stalling
Oil demand has not picked up.
Refinery inputs are not picking up.
Oil stock levels are declining but there is still too much oil out there.
Oil majors are in a lot of trouble who need an oil price of at least $50/barrel to sustain dividends.
