Food Inflation

If there is one evidence of inflation, then it's in food. All have been going higher since the stimulus in March 2020. The population hasn't been growing that fast, it's all because of money printing.

Global Negative Yielding Debt

Global negative yielding debt hits record high. Should be positive for gold.

 

Copper Deficit to Grow

It is expected that the copper price will rise in the coming decade. To bet on this you can buy Nova Royalties, Oroco Resource or Deep-South Resources.

 

China is Booming!

China power consumption for November 2020 was up 9.4%, a record high for the year.

Corporations are flooded with cash

 Corporations have record amounts of cash, which will spur more buybacks.

Earnings are expected to balloon.

Fed Dot Plot Signals Rates Staying At Zero

 No rate hike in the near future.

Yardeni Ups Forecast on the Economy

Yardeni upped his forecast again from 4000 on the S&P500 to 4300 on the S&P500.

Old:

New:

U.S. Treasury Maturity Schedule

We know the Fed won't let these mature, because then they would have losses at rising bond yields. These will need to be rolled over at higher bond yields. Or they need to print more money to buy them up.

For more info read my article. 

Bank Stocks Vs. Yield Curve

The yield curve decides the net interest margin for banks. A rise in the yield curve will make banks more profitable and leads to a rise in the share price of bank stocks.

Gold Mine Production Outlook

 According to Barrick Gold, gold mine production is about to decline. We'll see.

U.S. dollar currency held abroad

 70% of U.S. dollars is held abroad.

Central Banks Printing Money

Central banks keep printing money.

Gold Forecaster Index: Vaccine Optimism Puts Pressure On Gold (04-Dec-2020)

 

Bitcoin Vs. USD

 There is an inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar.

Oil Inventory Vs. Oil Price

 When oil inventories rise, this means there is a glut in oil. The oil price will go down.

Macro-economic indicators from the EIA should be monitored.

• Refinery net production
• Weekly oil production
• Weekly oil stock levels
• Distillate demand
• Global oil supply and demand
• Baker Hughes rig count
• Weekly supply of petroleum products

Make sure to check the uranium price because uranium is a leading indicator for oil.
Make sure to check the GDP outlook from the Atlanta Fed.

TIPS Bond Yield Vs. Gold

 Gold and TIPS are correlated.

TIPS disconnected vs Gold

Gold should be moving higher.

 

Central bank gold reserves steady

 The latest Q3 report of central bank reserves shows a steady number.

Yardeni Ups Forecasts for Stock Market

Yardeni just upped his forecast on the S&P from this:

to this:

On the back of a strong Q4 GDP forecast:

Oil Backwardation Vs. Oil Price

When the oil market goes into backwardation, the oil price is likely to go higher.

Oil just went into backwardation in December 2020, this means that the oil market is in tight supply. Advisable to get into oil stocks like XOM, RDS.

In the chart below we can see how the oil price correlates to the futures spread.

Vale, a play on nickel boom

 Vale is a good nickel play.

For more info on Nickel.

Stock Screener: Ep. 23: Wise Token

 

Sprott Miners Update Q3 2020

Sprott Inc. has deleted a few miners. 

- Avino Silver, because that company went on strike.

- Alexco, because of overvaluation.

- Galiano Gold, because costs were rising too much.

- Harmony Gold, because they are in South Africa with high costs.

- Kirkland Gold, because of overvaluation.

- Yamana Gold, because of overvaluation.

- Hecla Mining, because of overvaluation.

Sprott Inc. added following miners:

- Mag Silver, to get exposure to silver.

- Osisko Gold, because they are the cheapest royalty out there.

- Silvercrest Metals, because exposure to high grade silver.

- Barrick Gold, because Warren Buffett believes in it.

- Kinross Gold, because the PE ratio is below 10.

- Exxon Mobil, because it is very cheap.

Clean Energy Future Vs. Oil

 There is a clear path in transitioning oil to clean energy.

Gold Forecaster Index: The Effect Of The Presidential Elections On Gold (04-Nov-2020)

Gold During Contested Election

Presidential Elections

Probably contested election.

Trump wins: 4 more years of this.

Biden wins: 

• Clean energy: silver higher on EV, solar demand
• China deals: buy Chinese stocks
• Oil sector bust, net energy thermodynamic collapse
• Tax corporations: stocks under pressure, lower GDP
• Universal basic income: consumer inflation
• More stimulus: consumer inflation
• USD crashing on higher debt

Non-financial debt is soaring

 

Prosus, a cheaper way to buy Tencent

 Prosus owns 31% of Tencent and is trading at a discount.

Market Capitalization Vs. Net Inflow of Money

When money flows into an asset, the price goes up. This can be quantified by the following formula.

C = (A+B)^2 / A^2

Where:

A = initial market cap

B = net inflow of money

C = price multiplication

So if the amount of investors money going into gold doubles, the market cap four folds.

For example:

A = 1 trillion

B = 1 trillion

C = 4 

Fintech is the future

The traditional banking system is losing status while fintech startups are growing. This also includes crypto solutions.

60 Minutes Australia and The Age are Fake News

 

Dollar Shortage Vs. FX Swaps

Dollar shortages can be monitored by looking at FX swaps.

Keith Neumeyer Jacks Up Silver Prices

 Keith Neumeyer just jacked up silver prices from $28/ounce to $30/ounce.

Stock Screener: Ep. 22: Winston Gold Corp

 

China Power Consumption Rises 7.2% in September 2020

 China is recovering both in power consumption and GDP growth.

Oil Demand Is Stalling

 Oil demand has not picked up.

Refinery inputs are not picking up.

Oil stock levels are declining but there is still too much oil out there.

Oil majors are in a lot of trouble who need an oil price of at least $50/barrel to sustain dividends.

Shanghai SGE gold demand spikes

 Shanghai gold deliveries hit a yearly record high in September. 

Perth Mint Sales September 2020

September 2020 Perth Mint gold and silver sales numbers are rising.