maandag 23 december 2019

Delinquencies Vs. Unemployment Rate

The delinquencies are a leading indicator for the growth in the unemployment rate. As more and more people default on loans, these losses will be taken by the companies holding those loans (auto loans, student loans, mortgage loans). The result is that they will need to cut costs and fire people.

The correlation is very accurate here. In 2019 and going into 2020, we know that delinquencies will be rising and this should indicate that the unemployment rate will spike up.

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