TIPS disconnected vs Gold

Gold should be moving higher.

 

Central bank gold reserves steady

 The latest Q3 report of central bank reserves shows a steady number.

Yardeni Ups Forecasts for Stock Market

Yardeni just upped his forecast on the S&P from this:

to this:

On the back of a strong Q4 GDP forecast:

Oil Backwardation Vs. Oil Price

When the oil market goes into backwardation, the oil price is likely to go higher.

Oil just went into backwardation in December 2020, this means that the oil market is in tight supply. Advisable to get into oil stocks like XOM, RDS.

In the chart below we can see how the oil price correlates to the futures spread.

Vale, a play on nickel boom

 Vale is a good nickel play.

For more info on Nickel.

Stock Screener: Ep. 23: Wise Token

 

Sprott Miners Update Q3 2020

Sprott Inc. has deleted a few miners. 

- Avino Silver, because that company went on strike.

- Alexco, because of overvaluation.

- Galiano Gold, because costs were rising too much.

- Harmony Gold, because they are in South Africa with high costs.

- Kirkland Gold, because of overvaluation.

- Yamana Gold, because of overvaluation.

- Hecla Mining, because of overvaluation.

Sprott Inc. added following miners:

- Mag Silver, to get exposure to silver.

- Osisko Gold, because they are the cheapest royalty out there.

- Silvercrest Metals, because exposure to high grade silver.

- Barrick Gold, because Warren Buffett believes in it.

- Kinross Gold, because the PE ratio is below 10.

- Exxon Mobil, because it is very cheap.

Clean Energy Future Vs. Oil

 There is a clear path in transitioning oil to clean energy.

Gold Forecaster Index: The Effect Of The Presidential Elections On Gold (04-Nov-2020)

Gold During Contested Election

Presidential Elections

Probably contested election.

Trump wins: 4 more years of this.

Biden wins: 

• Clean energy: silver higher on EV, solar demand
• China deals: buy Chinese stocks
• Oil sector bust, net energy thermodynamic collapse
• Tax corporations: stocks under pressure, lower GDP
• Universal basic income: consumer inflation
• More stimulus: consumer inflation
• USD crashing on higher debt

Non-financial debt is soaring

 

Prosus, a cheaper way to buy Tencent

 Prosus owns 31% of Tencent and is trading at a discount.

Market Capitalization Vs. Net Inflow of Money

When money flows into an asset, the price goes up. This can be quantified by the following formula.

C = (A+B)^2 / A^2

Where:

A = initial market cap

B = net inflow of money

C = price multiplication

So if the amount of investors money going into gold doubles, the market cap four folds.

For example:

A = 1 trillion

B = 1 trillion

C = 4