Gold Forecaster Index: Gold to Outperform Stocks and Bonds

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Gold is the Anti-Bond (06-Jul-2023)

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Buy When Everyone Has Lost Interest (07-Jun-2023)

 

Gold forecaster index: Banking crisis triggers gold mania

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Seasonally Weak Gold Period (08-Mar-2023)

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Green Shoots Coming

 

Citigroup Surprise Index Vs. Bond Yields

The Citigroup Surprise Index predicts bond yields.

Buy bonds (sell yields) when the citigroup surprise index is overly optimistic.

Gold Forecaster Index: Shortages Everywhere Except In Gold

 

Gold Forecaster Index: China is buying silver!

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Inflationary Recession (07-Jul-2022)

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Energy Trumps Gold

 

Food Price Index Vs. Fertilizers

The global food price index is a leading indicator for fertilizer prices. The green line is the Gregg Ibendahl ammonia forecaster, which is a leading indicator for fertilizers.

 

 

Fertilizer price index can be found here.

 

Potash is historically not that expensive when you compare it to the yield gain. Watch the potash cost curve.

 

 

 

Watch the affordability index.

Natural gas is correlated to ammonia and fertilizer prices.

 

Fertilizers are correlated to food prices/production.

Watch the sulphur price as it is correlated to fertilizers.

Check the drought report. Higher drought means higher food prices.

The stock to use ratio is a leading indicator for food prices. Whenever stock to use ratio drops, food prices rise.

• Stock to use ratio wheat.
• Stock to use ratio soybeans.
• Stock to use ratio corn.

The crop yield is a leading indicator for food prices. Whenever crop yields drop, food prices rise. Global crop yields can be found here.

Watch the trend in meat consumption, which is the main demand for feed.

Watch the trend in growing season. As the solar minimum approaches in 2025, the growing season will drop and lead to less food production and higher food prices.

Farmland values are correlated to fertilizers.

U.S. farmland values can be found here.

Brazilian farmers use more and more fertilizers per ha.

Brazil potash imports.

Gold Forecaster Index: U.S. Trade Deficit Skyrocketing

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Supply Chains Collapsing (05-Apr-2022)

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Stagflation (08-Mar-2022)

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Forget Gold, Buy Poo

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Forget gold, buy lithium

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Gold Losing Its Shine (07-Dec-2021)

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Raising the debt and gold ceiling (5-Oct-2021)

 

The "Mannarino" Index

The Mannarino Market Risk indicator was created by Gregory Mannarino in September 2021. 

Whenever this indicator is high, stocks don't perform well. 

Whenever this indicator is low, stocks shoot up.

Lions, as you know- we are going to utilize a new way to gauge market risk, The Mannarino Market Risk Indicator. We are using a scale from 50 to 400 to gauge risk. We derive a “risk number” using this equation- we multiply the DXY by the 10yr Yield and get X. Then we divide X by 1.61

At the time of this writing the Mannarino Market Risk Indicator stands at around 86.

Here is a general scale of how to gauge risk.

A reading from 50-100 = LOW RISK

A reading from 100-200 = MODERATE RISK

A reading above 200 = HIGH RISK

A reading above 300 = EXTREME RISK.

Keep in mind that we need to take in the current environment as a whole, but again in general, the lower the MMRI, (Mannarino Market Risk Indicator), the more risk in we should be taking on in equities. The higher the MMRI the less risk we take.

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GM