Onshore oil inventories Vs. Brent Oil

There is a correlation between onshore oil inventories and Brent oil. 

Break even shale oil

Breakeven shale oil around $60/bbl.

The Urals Oil Premium

The Urals Oil premium. 

- During periods of positive Urals oil premium, the oil price goes up. 

- During periods of negative Urals oil premium, the oil price goes down.

Crude Oil Vs. Diesel Oil

Crude oil should be at $180/bbl. 

Dot Plot

 Previous:

Now:

Shanghai oil price

China needs oil. 

But not heating oil.

The plan

This is a chart from the minister of Iran. It says that Hormuz is going to close indefinitely and oil will rise to $160/bbl. 

Copper Supply

Down 

Hormuz Disrupted

Closed again.

However, actual flows (crude + products) are higher.

But even with higher flows from the Middle East, inventories are dropping due to China depleting its inventory.

Brent should be going to $120/bbl.