Yield Curve Vs. GDP Growth

The yield curve is a leading indicator for GDP growth. 

Oil Vs. Yield Curve

An inverted yield curve is not good for oil. 

Inverted Yields Curve and Oil

Oil won't do so well. 

But gold will do extremely well.

Yield Curve Inversion Vs. Stock Market Correction

The longer the yield curve stays inverted, the bigger the stock market drawdown. 

Yield Curve Inversion Vs. Population Growth

Yield curve inversions happen when the population growth slows down.

Housing inventory is inversely correlated to the yield curve.

 

Break-even cost curves

Thread about cost curves. 

Silver:

Zinc:

Copper:

Uranium:

Tin:

Oil:

Gold:

Iron ore:

Platinum:

Palladium:

PGM:

Potash:

Lithium:

Spodumene:

Thermal coal:

Met coal: (2024)

Natural gas:

Yield Curve Inversion Vs. Recession

Deeper yields curve inversion is deeper recession.

Oil Forward Curve Is Useless

We will not look at the forward curves again.

Optimal Fertilizer Yield

There is an optimal fertilizer yield that will generate the highest crop produce. If fertilizer prices rise at constant food prices, farmers will use less fertilizer and therefore the crop yield will decline.

Federal Reserve Initiates Operation Twist 2.0

The Federal Reserve has started buying more treasuries on the long end of the yield curve while decreasing purchases on the short end.

The allocation across the 7- to 30-year nominal coupon maturity range will increase by 3 percentage points, in line with shifts in the distribution of Treasury securities outstanding. The allocation to the shortest nominal coupon sectors and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) will decrease modestly.

Bank Stocks Vs. Yield Curve

The yield curve decides the net interest margin for banks. A rise in the yield curve will make banks more profitable and leads to a rise in the share price of bank stocks.

Entire Yield Curve Below Inflation Rate CPI

The entire U.S. yield curve is below the CPI inflation rate of 2.5%.

 

Phillips curve: Unemployment Vs. Inflation

The Phillips curve suggests there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment.
In fact, I even believe that the unemployment rate is a leading indicator for inflation. (although the unemployment rate is regarded as a lagging indicator...)

 

When we look at 2019, the unemployment rate has been going down from 10% to 3%. Inflation is about to go higher because of the low unemployment rate.

Jim Rickards talks about the Phillips Curve:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_UhqAkG-KI&t=1910s

Yield curve uninverts

As predicted a few months ago, the yield curve would uninvert due to QE. Normally a recession would occur, but this is not guaranteed. What is guaranteed is higher inflation and higher stock and gold prices. So prepare yourself now!