How Long Until Inflation Declines?

It takes about 10 years to get inflation below 2% again. 

Deflationary Vs. Inflationary Recession

2008 was a deflationary recession while 2022 will be an inflationary recession.

 

 

Murder Rate Vs. Inflation

The murder rate is correlated to inflation.

 

Core CPI

The discrepancy between CPI with and without food and energy. 

Zillow Rent Index Soars

Inflation is going to rise a lot. 

Zillow Rent Index Vs. CPI Rent

The Zillow Rent Index provides real time rent prices and is a leading indicator for the CPI Rent Index, which is lagging due to owner equivalent rent surveys. Watching the Zillow Rent Index is crucial to predict the CPI.

 

CPI Rent is 23.4% of CPI Index.

10 Year Break-Even Inflation Rate Vs. CPI

The 10 year break-even inflation rate = 10 year bond - 10 year tips. It represents a measure of expected inflation and is a leading indicator for the CPI.

Birth Rate Vs. Inflation CPI

When there are less people, there is less demand for goods and less price pressure.

 

US CPI Expected to Reach 7%

More inflation to come. 

As China is not sending cheap goods anymore to the U.S.A.

Government Stimulus is Inflationary

Government stimulus will push up M2 and M2 will push up inflation.

The PCE, which is a broader measure of the CPI clearly indicates that inflation is going to hit.

Bond Yields Vs. CPI

A higher bond yield signals inflation (CPI).

M1 Signals Inflation

 M1 is a harbinger for inflation to come.

Real output is going down the drain

This year will be very inflationary as real output crashes in Q2 2020.

Real output is plunging

Real output has plunged. If nobody works, nobody gets to eat. Nothing is free. Inflation will soar.

Average Hourly Earnings Spike

The increase in average hourly earnings should be correlated to the CPI. But this spike could be an exception to the rule. The spike is caused by low earners getting out of the work force. Therefore bringing the average earnings higher.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures Fall off a Cliff

This won't bode well for the inflation numbers.