Tanker Attacks Vs. Hormuz Oil Flows

Tanker attacks increasing. 

Oil Inventories

Oil inventories are down. 

Commercial oil shorts

No shorts, oil headed higher.

Comparative inventory crude oil

Comparative inventory is the inventory compared to the 5 year average and it's down. Oil should be up.

JKM-TTF Vs. TTF Gas Price

There is a positive correlation between JKM-TTF vs price. This is because Asia is the major actor in the price setting mechanism.

TTF gas fill level

Not looking good for fill levels TTF gas. 

TTF Gas and Brent Positioning

TTF gas positioning is bullish. 

Brent positioning is bullish.

Comparable oil inventory

Inventories are drawing down. 

China stockpiling oil

China has started stockpiling crude oil at $100 oil.

But not refining that much.

Oil Inventory

These two WTI $100/bbl are not the same. 

Yardeni SP500 Outlook

New:

Old:

Global onshore crude oil inventory

Oil is going higher. 

China Holiday: Golden Week

China'll be back! 

COFER: USD allocation drops

USD dropped a bit. 

Deutsche Bank Copper Target

Deutsche Bank expects copper to rise to $10/lb. 

Yield Curve Vs. GDP Growth

The yield curve is a leading indicator for GDP growth. 

Gold Vs. Oil

Gold front runs oil.

Onshore oil inventories Vs. Brent Oil

There is a correlation between onshore oil inventories and Brent oil. 

Break even shale oil

Breakeven shale oil around $60/bbl.

The Urals Oil Premium

The Urals Oil premium. 

- During periods of positive Urals oil premium, the oil price goes up. 

- During periods of negative Urals oil premium, the oil price goes down.

Crude Oil Vs. Diesel Oil

Crude oil should be at $180/bbl. 

Dot Plot

 Previous:

Now:

Shanghai oil price

China needs oil. 

But not heating oil.

The plan

This is a chart from the minister of Iran. It says that Hormuz is going to close indefinitely and oil will rise to $160/bbl. 

Copper Supply

Down 

Hormuz Disrupted

Closed again.

However, actual flows (crude + products) are higher.

But even with higher flows from the Middle East, inventories are dropping due to China depleting its inventory.

Brent should be going to $120/bbl.

Singapore Removes 5% Cap On Gold

Singapore removing cap on gold. Bullish gold. 

QE doubled

They are upping the QE. 

Fund Managers: Gold Bottom Is In

The gold bottom is in. 

Bond bear market until 2040

Bull market in gold.

USD Cycle

USD is in a down cycle.

Gold frontrunning bonds

Bond yields should be going higher. 

Gold Rebound?

Gold to $4500?