Onshore oil inventories Vs. Brent Oil

There is a correlation between onshore oil inventories and Brent oil. 

Break even shale oil

Breakeven shale oil around $60/bbl.

The Urals Oil Premium

The Urals Oil premium. 

- During periods of positive Urals oil premium, the oil price goes up. 

- During periods of negative Urals oil premium, the oil price goes down.

Crude Oil Vs. Diesel Oil

Crude oil should be at $180/bbl. 

Dot Plot

 Previous:

Now:

Shanghai oil price

China needs oil. 

But not heating oil.

The plan

This is a chart from the minister of Iran. It says that Hormuz is going to close indefinitely and oil will rise to $160/bbl. 

Copper Supply

Down 

Hormuz Disrupted

Closed again.

However, actual flows (crude + products) are higher.

But even with higher flows from the Middle East, inventories are dropping due to China depleting its inventory.

Brent should be going to $120/bbl.

Singapore Removes 5% Cap On Gold

Singapore removing cap on gold. Bullish gold. 

QE doubled

They are upping the QE. 

Fund Managers: Gold Bottom Is In

The gold bottom is in. 

Bond bear market until 2040

Bull market in gold.

USD Cycle

USD is in a down cycle.

Gold frontrunning bonds

Bond yields should be going higher. 

Gold Rebound?

Gold to $4500? 

Divisia M4 Growth

Divisia M4 grew by 6.83% YoY in June.

Submerged Beach Ball

Ball can't stay under water forever.

When the Tech Bubble bursts, commodities win.

Fund managers Vs. Gold

Gold is close to the bottom. 

Goldman Sachs: TTF gas above 100 EUR/MWH

If the war doesn't resolve, expect TTF gas $100 EUR/MWH. 

Bab Al-Mandab Closure

Both Straits closed.

Central banks Vs. ETFs

Who wins?

VIX season is starting

Stocks should underperform gold.  

Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index (SDLLMTK)

The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index (SDLLMTK) is widely viewed as a leading indicator for AI stock valuations as it measures the willingness to spend money on AI intelligence.

CTA Conditional Flows for Gold

CTA flows point to $4500 gold. 

Chinese gold demand rising

Chinese gold imports are rising. 

Buy commodities, sell tech

Commodities should outperform tech.

Hormuz Closed

And Hormuz is closed...

Central banks buying gold

2026 is a good year for central bank gold buying. 

PBOC Liquidity Vs. Gold

Asia is the marginal buyer for gold and gold price is influenced by PBOC liquidity consisting of:

- MLF https://tradingeconomics.com/china/liquidity-injections-via-mlf

- Outright RRP https://tradingeconomics.com/china/outright-reverse-repo

- Bank RRP https://tradingeconomics.com/china/cash-reserve-ratio

- Daily RRP https://tradingeconomics.com/china/liquidity-injections-via-reverse-repo

Hormuz is flowing

All is back to normal. 

Gold Vs. 2 Year Yield

Gold is driven by fed rate expectations. 

Fund Managers Vs. Gold

Fund managers think gold is fair value. 

Implied oil price

Oil producers expecting $65 oil.

The USD Decline

The USD is at an inflection point.

Central Banks Buy Gold

A good leading indicator for gold.