Correlation Economics: september 2021

maandag 27 september 2021

The "Mannarino" Index

The Mannarino Market Risk indicator was created by Gregory Mannarino in September 2021.

Whenever this indicator is high, stocks don't perform well.

Whenever this indicator is low, stocks shoot up.

Lions, as you know- we are going to utilize a new way to gauge market risk, The Mannarino Market Risk Indicator. We are using a scale from 50 to 400 to gauge risk. We derive a “risk number” using this equation- we multiply the DXY by the 10yr Yield and get X. Then we divide X by 1.61

At the time of this writing the Mannarino Market Risk Indicator stands at around 86.

Here is a general scale of how to gauge risk.

A reading from 50-100 = LOW RISK

A reading from 100-200 = MODERATE RISK

A reading above 200 = HIGH RISK

A reading above 300 = EXTREME RISK.

Keep in mind that we need to take in the current environment as a whole, but again in general, the lower the MMRI, (Mannarino Market Risk Indicator), the more risk in we should be taking on in equities. The higher the MMRI the less risk we take.

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GM

FRBNY Total Foreign Gold Deposits Drop

This only happens during depressions.

Peter Schiff Talks About Tapering

By law, the Fed cannot have more than 5% profits per year. Excess earnings are remitted to the Treasury. What happens when the Fed tapers and bond yields spike? The Fed will have losses on its bond holdings. These losses will have to be reimbursed by the Treasury with tax payer money. However, Yellen's wallet is empty right now... That's why tapering is out of the question.

zaterdag 25 september 2021

Chip Shortage

Visualization of the chip shortage. This will be good for tin.

Gold and silver checklist backup

To be able to time the precious metals market you need to take into account a lot of things. Here is a checklist.

1) Gold Forecaster Index

The gold forecaster index is a leading index for the gold price.

Always make sure that the gold forecaster index is in positive territory when buying gold/silver.

2) Taylor Rule Rate
Inflation starts to appear when the Taylor Rule Rate is above the Fed Funds rate. Only buy gold when the chart is in positive territory.

3) Misery Index
Another correlation is that between the misery index and gold. The more misery, the higher the gold price. High unemployment and high inflation are good for gold.

4) Real Output
Productivity is negatively correlated to inflation. Whenever productivity slows down, efficiency drops and goods become more expensive to make, resulting in higher inflation, which is good for gold.

5) Supply and Demand

Always check that gold and silver demand is higher than the supply of gold and silver. When mine supply goes down, precious metals typically move higher.

However, be aware that gold has a high stock to flow ratio, which means mine production doesn't impact the gold price that much as it does with other commodities.

The USGS gives annual numbers on silver production and silver reserves.

As silver is a byproduct of base metal mining, it is important to watch copper production in Chile and Peru.

6) Gold Demand

Gold demand can be witnessed from many places. Watch the global ETF flows.

Watch the GLD stock level. If the stock level goes higher, the price goes higher.

Watch the COMEX gold numbers. They need to go up.

Watch the COMEX deliveries. They need to go up.

Watch LBMA gold/silver levels.

China gold demand can be found from the SGE deliveries. Make sure this number goes higher each month. India gold imports can be found here.

7) Silver Demand

Silver demand can be witnessed from the SLV stock level. If the stock level goes higher, the price goes higher.

SLV is correlated to the total physical silver holdings.

Watch the Chinese SHFE warehouse numbers, which show Chinese silver demand.

Watch Shanghai silver withdrawals.

Watch the COMEX silver numbers. You want these to actually go down because that would mean there is a shortage.

It means that money is moving from COMEX to PSLV.

8) Central bank gold demand

Make sure to check if central banks are buying gold.

Central banks owned 1150 million ounces in reserves.

List of countries: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gold-reserves or https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-reserves-by-country

China central bank: http://www.pbc.gov.cn/diaochatongjisi/116219/116319/3959050/3959052/index.html

9) U.S. Mint Sales

U.S. Mint sales are a proxy for demand. You want this to go up.

10) Gold and Silver Premiums

When the premiums to spot price are high, this typically tells us that precious metals will go higher. You can watch the APMEX silver premiums.

Junk silver bags are primarily bought for their silver content and follow spot silver prices very closely. If you see a spike in premiums here, that means there is real demand for silver.

Shanghai gold premiums can be found here.

Shanghai silver premiums are rising.

APMEX gold premiums. Alternatively you can find gold premiums here.

PSLV premiums.

11) COT Report

The COT report gives info on open interest, swaps and managed money. You want to see a lot of managed money shorts, which will result in a short squeeze. You want to see the swap dealers being long the market (positive swap number). Open interest is correlated to the gold price.

The following chart shows that swap dealers move opposite of the gold price.

12) Backwardation

Make sure to buy gold when there is backwardation. That means there is an accute supply problem. You want a negative GOFO rate.

Gold Forward Rate GOFO = LIBOR - Gold Lease Rate GLR

LIBOR rates.

Lease rates are negative.

Moreover, gold/silver bottoms out when the lease rate curve inverts.

13) Swiss Franc Vs. Gold

Watch the Swiss Franc for short term movements. A strong Swiss Franc is good for gold.

14) TIPS

Gold and TIPS are correlated.

15) Real Yields

Gold outperforms when real yields go down.

16) Seasonality

Gold/Silver is more likely to rise during the months of January, April, July, September and November.

17) Technicals

Besides all these fundamental reasons above, you need to check the technical picture as well. Buy gold when there is a breakout. (Jesse Livermore: "Follow the path of least resistance")