Commodity Forecasts

 Some commodity forecasts.

Break-even cost curves

Thread about cost curves. 

Silver:

Zinc:

Copper:

Uranium:

Tin:

Oil:

Gold:

Iron ore:

Platinum:

Palladium:

PGM:

Potash:

Lithium:

Spodumene:

Thermal coal:

Met coal: (2024)

Natural gas:

Commodity Outlook

The commodities to buy are: gold, lead, cocoa, rice, sugar, oil, gas.

The commodities to sell are: lithium, tin, iron ore, zinc, palm oil, cotton, coffee, coal.

Chip Shortage

Visualization of the chip shortage. This will be good for tin.

 

Tin Market

Tin is a key component for chips and is in short supply right now due to high chip demand.

The tin price is now 30000/tonne, which is at the highest end of the cumulative tin production cost curve (2016).

Updated 2019 cost curve has increased a bit, which means that the tin price will probably stay higher.

Updated 2025 cost curve.

Tin is produced mainly in Asia.

2021:

Indonesia exports are falling. The largest Indeonesia tin producer will not be able to increase production. Myanmar exports are also falling due to political issues. They had been mining at surface tin, but that tin is now all mined out. They will need to mine the lower grade underground stuff now.

Production is declining.

Tin will be in deficit for at least several years and demand will only increase.

Which will put more pressure on stock levels which are hitting all time lows.

The supply demand situation looks like this. Demand will outpace supply.

Tin is correlated to semiconductor sales, which are booming. TSMC is building new capacity.

EUV technology was invented in 2017 by ASML, which uses a lot of tin. It went in production in 2018.

Alphamin is the best pure tin producer at this moment to buy right now as it is the highest grade tin mine in the world. With a PE of 8 and a 10+ year mine life, this is good value. Especially when tin prices go higher, because net profit margins will increase a lot. Alphamin will double production within 2 years from now once they get their south mine drilled out.

Currently there is an arbitrage opportunity between Johannesburg exchange and Canadian exchange.