Commodity Outlook

What to buy?

It's over for lithium

Lithium is going in surplus for many years. 

Metals outlook

IEA issues outlook for copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, graphite. 

Copper:

Nickel:

Lithium:

Cobalt:

Graphite:

Commodity Outlook 2024

Morgan Stanley commodity outlook. 

Break-even cost curves

Thread about cost curves. 

Silver:

Zinc:

Copper:

Uranium:

Tin:

Oil:

Gold:

Iron ore:

Platinum:

Palladium:

PGM:

Potash:

Lithium:

Spodumene:

Thermal coal:

Met coal: (2024)

Natural gas:

Lithium cost curve

How low will lithium drop? Look at the cost curve.

Energy Material Demand for Green Revolution

We will need a lot of copper, aluminum, lithium and steel. 

Commodity Outlook

The commodities to buy are: gold, lead, cocoa, rice, sugar, oil, gas.

The commodities to sell are: lithium, tin, iron ore, zinc, palm oil, cotton, coffee, coal.

China EV Sales Boost Lithium

China now has a 30% penetration rate, much higher than the estimated 15% a year ago.

Old estimate:

New estimate:

Latest update: 732000 NEV wholesale sales.

Penetration rate:

5 Commodities to Buy

There are 5 commodities to buy.

Aluminum, zinc, lithium, sugar and fertilizer (natural gas). 

China EV and lithium boom

China produces 25 million vehicles per year. Out of those 25 million, 7 million are EVs according to the latest monthly data. That's a penetration rate of 30%. Moreover, China has 5X the population of USA but car sales are about the same. A lot of growth is still to come for China.

Got #lithium?