Silver Supply and Demand - Surplus and Deficit

Is silver going into a new reality? 

https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-silver-prices/

https://www.fundsindia.com/blog/mf-research/silver-lining-is-it-time-to-add-silver-to-your-portfolio/32139

China Trade Surplus Goes Into Gold

China is winning and buying gold.

Oil surplus in 2025

It's still not the moment to buy energy. 

Update: 12-dec-2024

IEA Oil Demand and Supply

Oil is going into surplus. 

Jan-2025

It's over for lithium

Lithium is going in surplus for many years. 

Oil going into surplus in 2024

Oil is going into surplus. 

Update 16-feb-2024

Some forecasts are even worse.

Copper to go in surplus in coming years

It is time to sell copper miners for now.

 

China Trade Balance Soaring

I've been telling for years that China's tourism sector has collapsed. Chinese people are now fueling their own domestic economy instead of spending their money abroad. This lead to a soaring trade surplus and the Chinese will now be gobbling up all the commodities with that surplus money.

 

China Growing Rapidly: Power Consumption Hits Record

 China power consumption grew by 7.7% yoy in August 2020.

Helped by Chinese tourists staying at home and using their saved money for themselves, increasing the surplus in balance of trade.

In this environment, the yuan will rise sharply and it is recommended to buy Chinese bonds and stocks. I recommend to put some money in CBON for example.

GDP Vs. Trade Balance

The trade balance numbers are given monthly, so they can be a good indication on how the GDP numbers will pan out as they are quarterly numbers.

We can predict the GDP numbers by looking at the trade balance numbers. Whenever the trade balance goes into deficit, the GDP growth actually accelerates. This is because people will import more to consume more (more consumption is more deficit). A big part of GDP is mostly based on consumption.

For more info on this, go here.

Analysis of Deficits to Outlay Spending Ratio

I already talked about how the U.S. budget deficit is skyrocketing in this article. Reason was that outlay spending has outpaced government tax revenues since 2008.

I decided to make another chart of this going to the early 1980's. As James Turk stated, when governments start to borrow more than 40% to fund their outlay spending, then we have come to a hyperinflationary scenario.

To see what this chart means, go to: the full version of this article.

Chart 1: Deficits (+)/Surplus (-) versus Outlay Spending Ratio

Europe is doing well

Eurozone current account surplus was $US 6 billion in January 2012, its highest level since 2007.

I already talked about the euro being much stronger than the USD in this article. Looks like my predictions are coming true. The euro also surged 0.5% earlier. And yesterday it surged 1%. It's now almost back at ratio 1.33.

And it will continue going up in my opinion.