Break even shale oil

Breakeven shale oil around $60/bbl.

Uranium AISC production cost curve

Uranium AISC curve. 

Poor Oil Producers

They can't make money.

Break-even cost curves

Thread about cost curves. 

Silver:

Zinc:

Copper:

Uranium:

Tin:

Oil:

Gold:

Iron ore:

Platinum:

Palladium:

PGM:

Potash:

Lithium:

Spodumene:

Thermal coal:

Met coal: (2024)

Natural gas:

Lithium cost curve

How low will lithium drop? Look at the cost curve.

Shale fracking costs Vs. Oil price

It is more difficult to drill oil wells. 

How much does it cost to produce LNG?

How much does it cost to bring U.S. #natgas to EU?

Build cost: $800/tpa LNG = $16/mcf per year

Gas cost: $3/mcf
Operating cost: $3/mcf
Transport cost: $3/mcf
=> Total cost: $9/mcf

Current LNG price: $13/mcf

Margin: $4/mcf per year

LNG looks like a profitable business. Right?

Example: Qatar.

Fertilizers trading below cost of production

Fertilizers might have bottomed because of high natural gas prices.

Plants are shutting down.

Potash is cheap

Potash is historically not that expensive when you compare it to the yield gain.

 

The reason for this is because food prices have gone up faster than potash prices.

USA Vs Brazil Soybean Production

Fertilizer prices have gone up for both USA and Brazil, which could have a detrimental effect on soybean crop yields. But which country will suffer the most?

Soybean prices are generally the same for both countries. Shipping costs are slightly lower for Brazil.

However, the cost of production is significantly lower in Brazil due to low overhead costs like property taxes. Even for the direct costs, which include fertilizer and seeds, the costs between the two countries are comparable.

This is why Brazil will stay very competitive compared to USA. Brazilian soybean exports are rising.

Lowest cost gold mines

If you're planning on investing into some gold miners, try to buy the lowest cost gold mines. B2Gold is a good candidate. 

- open pit gold mine

- long mine life 10+

- high operating cashflow ($700 million)

- no coronaproblems

- low cost

- low debt

- pays dividend

- growth 

- owned by Peter Schiff fund

- buyout target

Here is the latest financial statement and when we calculate:

free cash flow = operating cash flow - capital expenditures from investing activities = $491 - $262 = $292 million free cash flow.  In 2020 however, the company is expecting $700 million cashflow, so that means free cash flow will be in the $500 million. Compared to the market cap of $4 billion this is extremely cheap.

Make sure to avoid negative swap line countries.