Gold repatriation accelerates in April 2016

April 2016 has seen a record 22 tonnes repatriation in gold from the FRBNY.

Gold Silver Update

On 19 February I told everyone to sell gold as all my indicators were negative. Looks like I was right. Although I have become a bit more bullish after that date because I saw huge inflows in GLD ETF.

Look at how much inflows there are in the GLD in the latest month. We even see a bit of an arbitrage opportunity here. While the GLD inflows continued in May, the paper gold price went down. We'll monitor this closely in the next days to see if the GLD inflow continues.

On the managed money shorts (COT report), we see that the correction is finally starting. If the managed money short position correction completes to the upper channel, we could see gold go as low as $1150/ounce.

 

Silver could go as low as $15/ounce.

 

Premiums have come down, so I'm not at all bullish here. We could see a correction here because there is a lot of silver available. No supply shortages.

  

 

 

  

As for the COMEX. We see inflows in registered gold and a rise in open interest. Nothing special to report here.

 

And for silver, the registered silver stocks are still in a downtrend, pointing to a build up in leverage, which started in 2015.

 

Conclusion:

We're in a mixed situation. On one hand we have ETF's buying precious metals, which is bullish. But on the other hand we have weak premiums from both China and the Western world and the COT reports point to a short term bear case. So I wouldn't be rushing into precious metals at this moment. Wait a month or two to see where we stand.