Yardeni Increases Outlook on SP500

Yardeni gives an updated outlook on SP500 for 2024. Lower bound 4320, upper bound 4860.

New:

Old:

 

Nenner natural gas update

Natural gas will rise next year.

NGTL Pipeline Expansions

NGTL pipeline expansion projects 2021 and 2022 will be completed in Q2 2023. This will alleviate some of the AECO gas discount pressure to Henry Hub gas.

https://www.tcenergy.com/siteassets/pdfs/investors/reports-and-filings/annual-and-quarterly-reports/2022/tc-2022-q3-quarterly-report.pdf

Canadian pipeline imports to U.S. have improved.

 

2021 NGTL System Expansion Program Construction of the 2021 NGTL System Expansion Program continues and, due to current market conditions as well as regulatory and weather delays, the estimated capital cost of the program is $3.5 billion. As of September 30, 2022, $2.7 billion of facilities have been placed into service, with the remaining facilities expected to be placed in service in fourth quarter 2022 and first quarter 2023. The program consists of 344 km (214 miles) of new pipeline, three compressor units and associated facilities and will add 1.6 PJ/d (1.5 Bcf/d) of incremental capacity to the NGTL System.

2022 NGTL System Expansion Program We continue to advance construction of the 2022 NGTL System Expansion Program. As a result of current market conditions, material prices and regulatory delays, the estimated capital cost of the program is $1.5 billion with in-service dates anticipated in fourth quarter 2022 and second quarter 2023. The program consists of approximately 166 km (103 miles) of new pipeline, one new compressor unit and associated facilities and is underpinned by approximately 773 TJ/d (722 MMcf/d) of firm-service contracts with eight-year minimum terms.

NGTL System/Foothills West Path Delivery Program On March 2, 2022, we received further regulatory approvals related to $0.5 billion of facilities, with the remaining approval anticipated in fourth quarter 2022. As a result of terrain complexity, current market conditions, material and labour cost increases and additional permitting conditions, the Canadian portion of the West Path Delivery Program has an estimated capital cost of $1.5 billion, with the first of the facilities' in-service dates anticipated in fourth quarter 2022 and the remaining facilities throughout 2023. The program consists of approximately 107 km (66 miles) of pipelines and associated facilities and is underpinned by 275 TJ/d (258 MMcf/d) of new firm-service contracts with terms that exceed 30 years.

Base Metal CAPEX to Assets Ratio

Remember to buy the sector when CAPEX is low.

 

Sprott Holdings Update

Sprott holdings update.

He's going all in EV battery metals boom and out of old gasoline/diesel platinum cars.

Buys: Sigma Lithium, Albemarle, Nouveau monde graphite, Electra Battery Materials, MP Materials.
Sold: Platinum group metals, Rio tinto, Pan American, Kinross

VIX Vs. Stocks

Buy stocks when VIX is at 30 and sell stocks when VIX is at 20. 

Home Builders Vs. Stocks

The XHB Home Builders Index is a leading indicator for stocks.

 

Japan LNG Prices Soaring

The natural gas shortage is moving to Japan. 

Qatar LNG Boom

Qatar is a serious competitor in LNG. 

USD is overvalued

When the USD falls, commodities go up. 

Container Traffic Slowing Down

The economy isn't doing that fine. 

Housing Vs. Mortgage Rate

When mortgage rates rise, housing prices fall. 

Base metals rebound coming

The China credit impulse is forecasting a rebound in base metals. 

Confirmed by China bottoming.

At a time of all time low inventories.

Gold Forecaster Index: Forget Gold And Get Into Energy (03-Nov-2022)