Gold is the Anti-Bond. Gold strength since 2008 is not due to lower bond yields, but due to central bank gold buying.
- List of Correlations
- Gold Checklist
- Copper Checklist
- Gold Forecaster
- Oil Forecaster
- Stock Forecaster
- Bond Forecaster
- USD Forecaster
- Poo Forecaster
- Bitcoin Checklist
- Q Ratio
- Stock Valuation
- Leading/Coincident Indicator
- Misery Index
- Junk Bonds Vs. Stocks
- Currency Vs. Bonds
- Yield Curve Vs. Fed Funds Rate
- U.S. Bond Yields
- Dividend Yield Vs. Bond Yield
- QE Vs. Bond Yields
- Money Supply
- Dow Theory
- Excess Reserves
- Central Bank Balance Sheets
- Fed Balance Sheet Vs. Dow Jones
- Credit Spread Vs S&P
- Total credit Vs. Dow Jones
- Debt
- Debt Vs. Delinquency
- % Debt Held by Foreigners
- Interest Payment on Government Debt
- Disposable Income Vs. Housing
- Retail Sales Vs. Disposable Income
- Tax Revenue Vs. Stocks
- Tax Revenue Vs. Savings Rate
- NIIP Vs. Currency
- Trade Balance Vs. Currency
- Deficit
- Deficit to Outlay Ratio
- China Power Consumption Vs. China GDP
- Freight Vs. GDP
- Inventory Vs. GDP
- PCE Vs. GDP
- GDP Vs. Trade Balance
- GDP Vs. 10 Year Bond Yield
- GDP Vs. PMI
- Profits Vs. Employment
- Employment-Population Ratio Vs. Wages
- Employment-Population Ratio Vs. GDP per Capita
- Unemployment Vs. GDP
- Part-time Employment
- Productivity Vs. CPI
- Output Gap Vs. CPI
- Taylor Rule Rate Vs. Gold
- PPI/CPI/PCE
- Retail Sales Vs. CPI
- 2 Year Vs. LIBOR/SOFR Vs. Fed Funds Rate
- Loan Growth Vs. Fed Funds Rate
- Fed Funds Rate Vs. CPI
- Fed Funds Rate Vs. Unemployment
- Delinquencies Vs. Unemployment
- Delinquency Vs. Fed Funds Rate
- Labor Force Vs. Unemployment
- Non-Farm Payrolls Vs. Unemployment
- Quits Rate Vs. Wage Inflation
- Wage Inflation Vs. Unemployment
- Wage Inflation Vs. CPI
- M1 Vs. CPI
- Capacity Utilization Vs. CPI
- Capacity Utilization Vs. Unemployment
- New Homes Vs. Rents
- Lumber Vs. Housing
- Savings Vs. Housing
- Housing Starts Vs. Unemployment
- Initial Jobless Claims Vs. S&P
- Consumer Sentiment Vs. S&P
- Durable Goods Orders Vs. S&P
- Building Permit Vs. Housing
- Construction Vs. Housing
- Adjustable Mortgage Vs. Fed Funds Rate
- Fixed Mortgage Rates Vs. 30 Year Bond Yield
- MZM Vs. 10 Year Bond Yield
- Gold Vs. 10 Year Bond Yield
- Dow/Gold Ratio
- GOFO Vs. Gold
- Gold/Silver COMEX
dinsdag 25 juli 2023
donderdag 20 juli 2023
Central Banks buying gold from ETFs
Recently, the gold price has been rising while gold ETFs were flat. This started in Q4 2022. The gap is about 200 tonnes of gold in GLD.
This coincides with central bank gold buying of about 200 tonnes per quarter which started in Q3 2022.
maandag 17 juli 2023
zaterdag 15 juli 2023
donderdag 13 juli 2023
Scarcity Vs. Elasticity - Gold Vs. Credit
The natural hierarchy of money starts with gold at the top. Everything else is credit.
- Gold
- Currency
- Deposits
- Securities
As credit expands and contracts, the pyramid grows wider and narrower. In a credit expansion, liquidity flows from gold to credit and vice versa.
The federal reserve can increase the expansion cycle by inducing elasticity and lowering interest rates. The yield curve uninverts. Liquidity flows from gold into securities (stocks and bonds).
Conversely, the federal reserve can induce scarcity and a credit contraction by hiking interest rates. The yield curve inverts. Liquidity flows from securities into gold.
A rate hiking cycle leads to gold outperforming stocks. A rate cutting cycle leads to stocks outperforming gold. This happens with a delay.
An inverted yield curve leads to a rising gold price as liquidity flows from securities into gold.
This all leads to the concluding chart which connect the prices of money with the hierarchy of money:
maandag 10 juli 2023
Oil Vs. Copper demand
Oil demand doesn't look particularly strong.
Oil supply isn't helping either.
donderdag 6 juli 2023
woensdag 5 juli 2023
Yield Curve Inversion Vs. Population Growth
Yield curve inversions happen when the population growth slows down.
Housing inventory is inversely correlated to the yield curve.
Labels:
curve,
population,
yield
dinsdag 4 juli 2023
Foreign Gold Deposits Rising at New York Fed FRBNY
Foreign gold deposits at the New York Fed are once again rising. This tells me central banks are buying gold again.
And it's not China and Russia, because they wouldn't store their gold at the Fed. So it must be the developed markets.
maandag 3 juli 2023
Abonneren op:
Posts (Atom)