woensdag 29 juni 2022

Natural gas prices are headed higher

EU is going to have a bad winter as gas supplies are dwindling. LNG and coal are the only solution. 




maandag 27 juni 2022

SPR Vs. Oil Price

Whenever the U.S. strategic petroleum reserves get drawn down, oil goes down as supply hits the market.



zaterdag 25 juni 2022

Oil CAPEX Vs. Oil Prices

Oil CAPEX is at decade lows and should support higher oil prices.








Whenever CAPEX is low, prices will start rising.




vrijdag 24 juni 2022

Natural gas is cheapest energy

Natural gas is the cheapest energy form and is likely to go higher. 


donderdag 23 juni 2022

Fertilizers trading below cost of production

Fertilizers might have bottomed because of high natural gas prices.

Plants are shutting down.



zondag 19 juni 2022

Wealth between generations

This environment is getting worse per generation.



2 years of negative GDP growth

We are going into a very long recession. I recommend to be in cash and gold.


zaterdag 18 juni 2022

Commodities 2022 Vs. 2008

Something is very different in this recession compared to 2008. 




vrijdag 17 juni 2022

donderdag 16 juni 2022

Natural gas will never drop

Natty will never drop. Anyone who thinks natty and food will drop again is dreaming.


Natural gas is the cheapest energy available and many will use it.


And gas supply is going to be flat.



woensdag 15 juni 2022

FOMC Meeting: Huge Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve is planning to hike rates until 3.5% by the end of this year.


Meanwhile GDP growth hits 0%.



 

India Gold Imports Vs. India Agriculture Exports

When Indians earn lots of money from agriculture, they buy lots of gold.



dinsdag 14 juni 2022

Yardeni decreases outlook for SP500

Yardeni decreased the outlook for the S&P500 from 3825-4335 to 3315-4080 in 2022 and from 4400-4950 to 4125-4675 in 2023.

New:


Old:

 

maandag 13 juni 2022

Velocity is rising

Remember this formula. Money supply is up, velocity is up and goods produced are declining.

Guess what will happen with prices?



vrijdag 10 juni 2022

Annualized Return of Stocks/Currency Vs. Gold

Belangp created a nice corrrelation here.

What is the annualized return stocks vs gold today?


What is the annualized return of currency vs gold today?


Railroad Surcharge Vs. Fertilizer Prices

When freight costs rise, the price of the good transported will rise with it. In this case fertilizers.



 

Annualized Return on Equity

A way to look at the annualized equity return is based on this formula: (equity+debt)/market value of equity. The black line shows the annualized stock return that investors earned over the subsequent 10 years.


donderdag 9 juni 2022

Farmland Vs. Fertilizer

As farmland goes up, more farmers will need to use fertilizer. Therefore, farmland is correlated to fertilizer.


 

dinsdag 7 juni 2022

Affordability Fertilizer

Fertilizers are less affordable now, but this should change when food prices skyrocket.


 

vrijdag 3 juni 2022

Oil Production Fail

OPEC+ fails.


The result is that energy companies are making money on an oil price rise.



woensdag 1 juni 2022

Refinery Margins

Refineries are making big bucks. This also means that crude oil should go higher as refineries will keep demanding for that crude oil.


Cycles

I think we are in the Market Top section, which means we should be in energy stocks. 




Sprott Inc. Portfolio Update May 2022

Sprott Inc. filed their holdings.

Buys: Notable is Vale, Exxon, Steel Dynamics. Some gold mines: Kinross Gold, Sibanye, Newmont, Vizsla.

Sells: Vista gold, Mcewen, Kirkland, Gatos Silver and euro.