Equity positioning

Stocks bottomed.

Fed Pivot

The Fed hike pain will be over at the end of the year. 

Nordstream natural gas flows down to 20%

No gas, no fertilizer. 

Gold and silver premiums

Premiums are out of whack.

Euro Crash

The euro crash hasn't even started yet.

Equity Allocation Vs. Stock Returns

Equity allocation is inversely correlated to equity returns.

 

Construction Activity Vs. Home Prices

Construction is a leading indicator for home prices.

 

Unlimited Bond Buying: ECB vs FED

 

Charles Nenner on Commodities

Nenner says commodities will go up in the coming year starting from November 2022. 

Base metals will be weak.

Wheat is bottoming out in August.

Gold has weakness and will start going up by the end of the year.

Silver is going nowhere for two years.

Oil is going down.

Natural gas going down until October 2022.

Nordstream Turbine

It doesn't look like Nordstream will reopen at full capacity.

China Credit Impulse Vs. USD

When the China credit impulse rises, the U.S. dollar drops.

 

Natural Gas Situation in Europe

Interesting article.

Natural gas flows to Europe are dangerously low.

LNG imports are at all time highs.

China hasn't reopened yet.

Asia and EU LNG are correlated.

Germany gas storage is dropping during the summer.

Italy is worse.

The worst is yet to come for Euro

Energy shock coming. 

Temporary Workers Vs. S&P500

Temporary workers are a leading indicator for a recession as they are easy to be fired.

Got Natty?

Gas to skyrocket.

 

Gold Forecaster Index: Inflationary Recession (07-Jul-2022)

 

Deflationary Vs. Inflationary Recession

2008 was a deflationary recession while 2022 will be an inflationary recession.

 

 

U.S. Manufacturing is Cratering

No U.S. manufacturing jobs. 

China fertilizer exports plummet

And I expect it to keep plummeting with higher natural gas prices. 

Yardeni decreases outlook for S&P500

Yardeni decreased the outlook for SP500 from 3315-4080 to 3290-3995 in 2022 and from 4125-4675 to 3825-4590 in 2023.

New:

Old:

 

Murder Rate Vs. Inflation

The murder rate is correlated to inflation.

 

Oil headed to $380/barrel

J.P. Morgan sees $380/barrel oil. 

Urea headed higher

Good sign for fertilizers.

Oil Vs. Gasoline/Diesel

There is a linear correlation between oil and gasoline/diesel.

 

Gregg Ibendahl Ammonia Forecaster

The Gregg Ibendahl formula is a leading indicator for ammonia prices and can be used to accurately predict fertilizer prices.

 

Potash To Rise 50%

Potash is expected to rise further, possibly 50%. 

The model also predicted potash prices could rise to $1,200/ton, while MAP prices could be in the $1,470/ton range, he said.

For some perspective, the highest average retail fertilizer price tracked by DTN for anhydrous this spring was $1,534/ton. For potash prices, the high point was set at $881/ton, while MAP peaked at $1,083/ton.