Trader Positioning in Oil

With oil trader positioning at lows, this is the time to get back into oil. 

Lula Won The Election: Bullish Verde Agritech

Lula is going to reform agriculture.

I believe this is bullish Verde Agritech:

• Interest reductions for farmers using biofertilizers 
• Convert degraded pastures into farmland 
• Lower diesel prices
• Ban Amazon potash
• Higher food prices

Shale Gas Decline Rates Accelerating

This is why natural gas will go much higher. Shale gas production is flatlining due to high decline rates. 

We have a history to look at.

Gas prices should rise, including AECO gas.

Oil wells have been becoming gassier. As oil demand drops, oil supply will need to be cut with it and that will have a significant impact on natural gas supply dropping.

Gas production will not rise that fast anymore.

Live gas production can be followed here and here:

The U.S. will need to import Canadian natural gas.

Russia Potash Production is Cratering

Where will Brazil's farmers get their potash now? Hint: Verde Agritech.

Citigroup Surprise Index Vs. Bond Yields

The Citigroup Surprise Index predicts bond yields.

Buy bonds (sell yields) when the citigroup surprise index is overly optimistic.

Chinese Companies Delist

Here is the list of Chinese companies that face delisting next year.

https://www.sec.gov/hfcaa

Due to delisting risk, many Chinese companies crashed.

We see huge arbitrage in the U.S. listed shares, for example Daqo is trading at pe of 2 in the U.S., but at pe of 7 in Shanghai.

Why Low P/E Is Crucial

This is why we invest in low P/E stocks for our portfolio. 

Nenner update

Dow will bottom January 1 2023. 

Gold will keep crashing.

Goods Spending Vs. Unemployment

When goods spending falls, the unemployment rate rises.

Russia Railway Issues

Since Russia transports a lot of fertilizer, grain, energy via rail, this is going to impact production and increase prices. 

Market bottom is in

Here is my collection of bottom charts. 

Insiders are buying

Insiders are buying again, the bottom is in.

CEO's Exaggerate The Earnings

In recessions, CEO's tend to make their numbers look really bad. 

SPR Release Ending - Oil To $100+

Oil is about to move much higher.

Commodity CAPEX is at a bottom

Commodities are going into a massive bull market.

 

Net liquidity Vs. Fed Assets/TGA/Reverse Repo

Net liquidity is now controlling the stock market via the following formula: 

Net liquidity = Fed Assets - Treasury General Account - Reverse Repo

Natural Gas Flow To Europe Drops

Gas flows have been reduced due to Russian supply cuts. Europe has not been able to increase gas flows from other sources. 

Russian gas exports won't recover.

LNG is expected to stay above $30/mcf until 2025.

Because the demand in EU + UK is so high that LNG imports are maxed out.

Asia's LNG demand is expected to recover in 2023.