Another 10 tonnes of GLD stock added in one day. I think I can confidently say that we've bottomed out at the hedge fund level. See how smooth the chart is historically and how suddenly we spike up since the SNB announcement?
We aren't even sure that the GLD has the physical gold they claim. Maybe these are all paper claims, which means we can see those inventory rises as short covering. It is obvious the SNB doesn't like gold as they were against the referendum. So they were probably short covering it, and that's visible in GLD stock, correlated to gold price. The depegging was a canary in the coal mine, hinting that the ECB would be doing something spectacular and that sparked investors to buy into gold as well. It is all related to each other, it is not clearly lined out what the reason is.
I was under the impression that gld was a hangout for big money (paulson, soros, super rich etc) who park their physical gold their, the ins and outs are always substantial in tons. The small private shrimps just have and get paper, they cannot take gold out. So there is always more gold in gld than can be taken delivery of? Maybe some big parties with new swiss francs that suddenly got worth 20% more saw an opportunity to buy physical at a discount? Have you seen this article by Keith Weiner at zerohedge, what is your opinion about it? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-28/swiss-franc-will-collapse Keith also has an in my opinion nice blog at http://keithweinereconomics.com/ Btw I like your work and insights, very interesting points.
Yes, your idea of swiss francs going into gold is plausible as GLD stock only increased after depegging. Frankly, I have no idea. Keith says the Swiss franc will collapse. Very difficult for me to understand that. They have so many foreign reserves. Their current account is positive. Has a very low unemployment rate. The only problem I see is their leverage in the banking system.
Hi there, do you have any idea what would be the reasoning of how the gld intake is connected with the snb depeg?
BeantwoordenVerwijderenWe aren't even sure that the GLD has the physical gold they claim. Maybe these are all paper claims, which means we can see those inventory rises as short covering. It is obvious the SNB doesn't like gold as they were against the referendum. So they were probably short covering it, and that's visible in GLD stock, correlated to gold price. The depegging was a canary in the coal mine, hinting that the ECB would be doing something spectacular and that sparked investors to buy into gold as well. It is all related to each other, it is not clearly lined out what the reason is.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenI was under the impression that gld was a hangout for big money (paulson, soros, super rich etc) who park their physical gold their, the ins and outs are always substantial in tons. The small private shrimps just have and get paper, they cannot take gold out. So there is always more gold in gld than can be taken delivery of? Maybe some big parties with new swiss francs that suddenly got worth 20% more saw an opportunity to buy physical at a discount?
BeantwoordenVerwijderenHave you seen this article by Keith Weiner at zerohedge, what is your opinion about it?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-28/swiss-franc-will-collapse
Keith also has an in my opinion nice blog at
http://keithweinereconomics.com/
Btw I like your work and insights, very interesting points.
Yes, your idea of swiss francs going into gold is plausible as GLD stock only increased after depegging. Frankly, I have no idea. Keith says the Swiss franc will collapse. Very difficult for me to understand that. They have so many foreign reserves. Their current account is positive. Has a very low unemployment rate. The only problem I see is their leverage in the banking system.
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