U.S. Layoffs Spiking

This is bullish.

Philly Fed Services Survey Craters

This looks bullish! 

Unemployment Spike

Unemployment should rise. 

FOMC Meeting

New dot plot:

Old dot plot:

Misery

Misery is good for gold.

In context:

Yardeni lower target on SP500

New:

Old: 

 

Oil Vs. Inventories

Oil is undervalued compared to inventories. 

Neutral price of $70.

Yardeni Gold Price Target

Yardeni gold price target is $5000 in 2 years.

You have 5 months left

Growth is slowing down. 

GDP Growth Negative

Tariffs lead to recessions.

Oil Gold Dragon

The oil - gold dragon. 

Stock market FCF all time lows

You don't get a lot of return in this market. 

VLCC Floating Oil Storage Vs. Oil Price

When VLCC storage goes up, it means too much oil is available and oil prices drop. 

Hidden storage should also be accounted for.

Commodity Outlook

What to buy?

Sprott Inc Update

Buys: Royalty companies, Americas Gold and Silver and bitcoins

Sells: Newmont, Coeur, Equinox, i-80 Gold

Chinese insurers investing in gold

The Chinese insurance industry is starting to buy gold. 

USGS Silver Reserves

Global silver reserves are rising, not depleting. 

Gold Lease Rate Spike

Gold lease rates spiking. Signal for higher gold prices.

 

$8000 gold

 Peter Schiff's new target is $8000 gold.

Tariffs are good for gold

25% tariffs on USA, Canada, Mexico. 10% tariffs on China. This is the magnitude of it.

Gold lease rates spike Vs. Borrowing fee

Gold lease rate spikes. Gold to soar. Lease rates can be followed via borrowing fees as they are correlated.

Borrowing fees are correlated to lease rates.

China oil demand

China oil demand is falling off a cliff.

 

Global oil inventories Vs. Oil

Oil inventories and oil price are negative correlated.

China Trade Surplus Goes Into Gold

China is winning and buying gold.

Gold Bull Market to $5000

Gold bull market comparisons. 

USD Vs. Gold

When the USD falls, gold goes up.

 

Fair Value of Gold: 10000

The fair value of gold according to James Turk is 10k.

PGM demand deteriorating

PGM demand is not improving. Worst sector to invest in. 2021 (upper chart) Vs. 2025 (lower chart).

M2 Vs. Inflation

 The increase in money supply suggests that an inflation wave is coming. M2 leads CPI by 18 months.

7 Trillion Bond Refinancing in 2025

7 trillion in bonds to refinance in 2025.  

Not including the treasury bills, it's 3 trillion:

This will have repercussions on bond yields.

Sanctioning Tankers

Russian tankers getting sanctioned. Buy oil and tankers.

Trump Tariffs

Tariffs are bullish gold.

60/40 Portfolio Vs. Gold

Gold is outperforming the retirement portfolio. 

Hong Kong housing bust

Hong Kong housing has a lot of room to fall.