Leading Index Down

Stocks are living in fantasy land. 

Leading Indicator Falling

The economy is not doing so well. 

OECD Leading Indicator Vs. S&P Revenue

The OECD leading indicator is a good tool to monitor earnings.

Correlation: leading Vs. coincident Vs. lagging indicator

The FRED site gives leading indicators for the U.S. When we compare that indicator to the coincident indicator we do see that there is a lag. This is consistent with the definition of coincident and leading indicators.

A coincident indicator gives the status on current economic data points in the present. These include indicators like the inflation rate. A leading indicator gives a prediction on future economic activity. For example bond yields.

This is why the coincident indicator always lags the leading indicator. See chart above.. We also have lagging indicators like the unemployment rate. Moreover, when we compare the coincident and lagging indicator with each other, we have a leading indicator. Because tops in the stock market often happen when the coincident indicator rises slower than the lagging indicator. The recession will be on the horizon as the ratio of coincident to lagging indicator falls.

 

The weekly economic index gives a better view of the economy in real time on a weekly basis.

S&P revenue can be predicted via the OECD leading indicator. 

Profits before tax as a percentage of GDP is a leading indicator for the stock market.

The Sahm Rule Recession indicator is based on the U3 unemployment numbers and can be a gauge to see if we're nearing a recession.

Another recession indicator is the McKelvey Rule.

Another recession indicator is the Mel Rule.

Finally, there is the Michaillat-Saez recession indicator.

Yardeni's forecast can be found here.

Yardeni S&P500 earnings can be found here.

Make sure to check the GDP outlook from the Atlanta Fed.