Sanctioning Tankers

Russian tankers getting sanctioned. Buy oil and tankers.

Russia to buy 30 tonnes of gold in September 2024

Russia to start buying gold. 

Gulf Countries Start Using Gold

This could be a very important trend change. Gulf countries start using gold for oil trade with Russia. Oil market is 15x size of gold market. Demand for gold will skyrocket.

Natural Gas Supply to Europe

Natural gas supply to EU is down. 

Russia cuts oil production by 500K bbl/day

This is very bullish oil.

Russia oil exports collapsing

Russian oil exports collapsed, but rebounded again somehow.

Russia Potash Production is Cratering

Where will Brazil's farmers get their potash now? Hint: Verde Agritech.

Russia Railway Issues

Since Russia transports a lot of fertilizer, grain, energy via rail, this is going to impact production and increase prices. 

Natural Gas Flow To Europe Drops

Gas flows have been reduced due to Russian supply cuts. Europe has not been able to increase gas flows from other sources. 

Russian gas exports won't recover.

LNG is expected to stay above $30/mcf until 2025.

Because the demand in EU + UK is so high that LNG imports are maxed out.

Asia's LNG demand is expected to recover in 2023.

Russia Potash Production Plunges

Russia's potash production has cratered. 

 

This has now channeled through to lower exports to Brazil from Russia.

EU Gas Storage Will Deplete in 2023

Remember that in 2022, Nordstream 1 was a big contributor to filling EU gas storage. In 2023, this will not be happening so EU will run out of gas. 

Remember that Russia accounts for almost half of EU imports.

Total natgas supply.

China buys oil from Russia

Russia has one big customer. 

Russia Oil Price Cap Is Coming

We already know electricity will be capped at 200 euro/MWh, where will oil cap be?

 

EU Bans Shipments of Fertilizers from Russia

EU shipping companies are prohibited from shipping Russian fertilizer. This is shown in the FAQ published on 10 August 2022.

Summary:

https://www2.deloitte.com/dl/en/pages/legal/articles/handelsbeschraenkungen-sanktionen-embargos-russland-ukraine.html

Guide: https://www.vbb.com/media/Insights_News/Guide_to_the_EU_sanctions_against_Russia_12.04.pdf

Annex XII:

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022/576/oj#:~:text=and%20parts%20thereof-,ANNEX%20XXII,-LIST%20OF%20COAL

We already see that Russia fertilizer imports to Brazil have collapsed in August 2022.

Update: The EU has eased it again. https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1572484673070329857

https://finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-09/faqs-sanctions-russia-listed-goods_en.pdf

Got Natty?

Gas to skyrocket.

 

Energy Dependence Europe

Europe is shooting itself in the foot by banning Russian energy.

 

Russia's Plan

Russia is outlining their plan. It is crucial to read and understand this article to position yourself. We are entering a new era and not going back.

In March, logistic supply chains collapsed.

- European ports ban imports/exports from/to Russia (Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg). Azov-Black Sea is closed.

- Container shipping companies suspend cooperation with Russia (95% freight import to Russia) (MSC, Maersk, CMA and Hapag-Lloyd) (St.-Petersburg, Novorossiysk).

- Air freight is closed (FedEx, UPS and DHL).

- Railway and automobile routes closed between Poland - Baltic States - Belarus - Ukraine - Russia.

The consequences are:

- Higher freight rates.

- Trade increases between Russia - China by rail.

- Increase in price of uranium, coal, oil products, natural gas, metals, timber, neon, vegetable oil, fertilizers, grain, expecially for the world ex-Russia/China.

Gold Is The Safe Haven

During war times where GDP is expected to plunge 1%, you can expect bond yields to fall. As supply chains get disrupted, bank transfers get cut off from SWIFT, inefficiency will increase. Inefficient markets typically lead to inflation. 

In conclusion, we will get high inflation and low growth. Also known as stagflation. Real yields will be negative. This is a perfect environment for gold and Russia is already resuming gold purchases. I suggest you do the same before it's too late.

On the other end we have the worst performers: banks. They get a double whammy due to SWIFT (no more fees for transfers) and stagflation will hit their growth and yields.

Russian Commodities

How to play Russia. Except they forgot the most important commodity: potash.

 

Russia and Malaysia benefitting from Iran tensions

Russia and Malaysia oil prices are trading at a premium, benefitting from the Iran tensions.
A premium of $15/barrel.