China expanding, U.S. contracting

China is expanding while the rest of the world is in recession. 

Triffin Dilemma: The U.S. is losing share as a percentage of the world economy

The U.S. economy is becoming more and more insignificant by the day. As the rest of the world grows and uses the U.S. dollar in trade, more and more dollars are needed. Since the U.S. economy is so small, these dollars need to be printed in existence or the U.S. deficit needs to grow in order to supply the world with dollars.

U.S. NIIP is Cratering

The BEA gave a new update on the NIIP and it doesn't look good.

Americans are drowning in debt

Debt per American has never been this high. 

U.S. Treasury Maturity Schedule

We know the Fed won't let these mature, because then they would have losses at rising bond yields. These will need to be rolled over at higher bond yields. Or they need to print more money to buy them up.

For more info read my article. 

U.S. dollar currency held abroad

 70% of U.S. dollars is held abroad.

China to Cut Holdings in U.S. Treasuries

Let's see if China makes good on its promise.

Fitch issues negative rating outlook for U.S.A.

Fitch revised the U.S. AAA rating from stable to negative. Clearly, U.S.A. should get downgraded as its debt to GDP is approaching 150% of GDP.

U.S. Debt Has Hit 24 Trillion

U.S. debt was at 23 trillion at the start of 2020 and now it's 24 trillion. This is going up fast! Will also have negative impact on Debt to GDP going to 130% and beyond. This is going to be very inflationary. Debt is rising at 100 billion a day.

China is winning the Trade War

The best way to check who is winning the U.S.-China trade war is to just look at the balance of trade between U.S. and China. Since the start of the trade war in 2018, the balance of trade is essentially unchanged ($32 billion monthly trade deficit).

Also, China doesn't purchase a lot of agriculture from the U.S. anymore.

Instead, it is buying from Brazil.

U.S. demand for precious metals has declined

The U.S. Mint is a proxy for the demand for precious metals in the U.S.

And this U.S. demand is abysmal. It all crashed in 2016.

 

A very interesting trend though is that the ratio between silver and gold sales is rising. So more U.S. investors are starting to buy silver instead of gold. This tells me that silver is about to go up in value against gold.

Is China dumping U.S. treasuries?

I'm wondering why the U.S. bond yields are spiking higher.

Is China dumping U.S. treasuries? (hence the rise in the CNY/USD)

U.S. Mint Sales Plunging

Houston, we have a problem. Silver sales have plunged (red chart). It will be interesting to see the demand and supply figures from the Silver Institute...