HODLers Vs. Bitcoin

Hodlers typically sell, when bitcoin peaks. 

Nenner Update

Nenner update. 

Bitcoin Checklist

To predict bitcoin price, follow this checklist:

1) Bitcoin Price Model

Make sure the bitcoin price is undervalued based on the bitcoin price model.

2) Mayer Multiple

The Mayer multiple is a good indicator for bitcoin valuation. Make sure to buy bitcoin below the average.

3) NVT Ratio

The Bitcoin NVT Ratio show you if bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued. Buy when undervalued.

Also buy when we are at the start of the halvening cycle indicated by the vertical red lines.

4) Bitcoin Transactions

Buy when bitcoin transactions rise. This is a sign of adoption.

5) Bitcoin Users

Make sure the unique addresses are moving up. If it starts falling, this means people are liquidating their portfolio.

6) ATM Growth

Make sure the bitcoin ATM's are growing. This is a sign of adoption.

7) Cost per Transaction

Make sure the cost per transaction is low, this signals a bottom. People are less likely to use bitcoin if the costs are too high.

8) Hash Rate

Hash rates need to move higher. The Bitcoin network’s hash rate is the speed at which miners are able to perform proof-of-work calculations per second. A rising hash rate indicates more adoption.

9) Relative Unrealized Profit

This chart shows if we are in a depressed or euphoria phase. Buy bitcoin when it is depressed.

10) Stock To Flow

Watch for a low stock to flow ratio.

11) Puell Multiple

Buy bitcoin when miners have low issuance.

12) Alt Season

Choose to buy bitcoin or altcoins based on seasonality.

13) GBTC premium

Buy bitcoin when GBTC premiums are low, this signals a bottom.

14) HODL Rate

Bitcoin peaks when the HODL rate declines.

15) USD Index

Bitcoin is negatively correlated to the USD. Buy when the USD crashes. 

 

16) Bitcoin Vs. Bank Reserves

Bitcoin follows bank reserves.

 

17) Bitcoin Vs. VIX

Bitcoin trades inverse the VIX.

Bitcoin - Altcoin Seasonality

Typically January is the start of the altcoin season and a rise in Dogecoin correlates to alt season.

Bitcoin Vs. USD

 There is an inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar.

Fintech is the future

The traditional banking system is losing status while fintech startups are growing. This also includes crypto solutions.

Portnoy sells bitcoin

Davey Day Trader at the Closing Bell - August 21, 2020 https://t.co/TDgMHyA9Ym

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) August 21, 2020

Bitcoin about to break out

Let's see if bitcoin can break out of this resistance.

 

Guess not: