Oil hasn't capitulated yet

 

Gas rig counts Vs. Gas production

Gas rig counts are correlated to gas production.

Rig count Vs. Oil production

Rig count Vs. oil production. 

Rig rates Vs. Rig utilization

Rig rates Vs. Rig utilization. 

Baker Hughes Rig Counts Vs. Shale Oil/Gas Production

When rig counts rise, shale oil and gas production rises.

Rig counts dropping

Rigs dropping.

To find the most accurate GPS data go here.

Drilled and uncompleted wells have stopped declining, which means oil production has been maxed out.

Oil Inventories Vs. Rig Counts

Oil inventories and rig counts are negatively correlated. When inventories rise, oil producers will cut supply.

Oil production is falling at the worst time for shale producers

Oil production is about to fall.

What will happen to Whiting Petroleum, Oasis Petroleum, Noble Energy, Devon Energy and most importantly, the U.S. trade deficit?

Rig Count Vs. Oil Field Production

Rig counts are a 18-month leading indicator for oil field production. So if you know that oil production will go down next year, I would bet on rising oil prices.

The oil price is a leading indicator for rig counts. If you see the oil price (green line) go down, the rig count (blue line) will go down as well. Later on, the oil production (red line) will go down.

Oil price = Green line
Rig counts = Blue line

Oil production = Red line