- List of Correlations
- Gold Checklist
- Copper Checklist
- Gold Forecaster
- Oil Forecaster
- Stock Forecaster
- Bond Forecaster
- USD Forecaster
- Poo Forecaster
- Bitcoin Checklist
- Q Ratio
- Stock Valuation
- Leading/Coincident Indicator
- Misery Index
- Junk Bonds Vs. Stocks
- Currency Vs. Bonds
- Yield Curve Vs. Fed Funds Rate
- U.S. Bond Yields
- Dividend Yield Vs. Bond Yield
- QE Vs. Bond Yields
- Money Supply
- Dow Theory
- Excess Reserves
- Central Bank Balance Sheets
- Fed Balance Sheet Vs. Dow Jones
- Credit Spread Vs S&P
- Total credit Vs. Dow Jones
- Debt
- Debt Vs. Delinquency
- % Debt Held by Foreigners
- Interest Payment on Government Debt
- Disposable Income Vs. Housing
- Retail Sales Vs. Disposable Income
- Tax Revenue Vs. Stocks
- Tax Revenue Vs. Savings Rate
- NIIP Vs. Currency
- Trade Balance Vs. Currency
- Deficit
- Deficit to Outlay Ratio
- China Power Consumption Vs. China GDP
- Freight Vs. GDP
- Inventory Vs. GDP
- PCE Vs. GDP
- GDP Vs. Trade Balance
- GDP Vs. 10 Year Bond Yield
- GDP Vs. PMI
- Profits Vs. Employment
- Employment-Population Ratio Vs. Wages
- Employment-Population Ratio Vs. GDP per Capita
- Unemployment Vs. GDP
- Part-time Employment
- Productivity Vs. CPI
- Output Gap Vs. CPI
- Taylor Rule Rate Vs. Gold
- PPI/CPI/PCE
- Retail Sales Vs. CPI
- 2 Year Vs. LIBOR/SOFR Vs. Fed Funds Rate
- Loan Growth Vs. Fed Funds Rate
- Fed Funds Rate Vs. CPI
- Fed Funds Rate Vs. Unemployment
- Delinquencies Vs. Unemployment
- Delinquency Vs. Fed Funds Rate
- Labor Force Vs. Unemployment
- Non-Farm Payrolls Vs. Unemployment
- Quits Rate Vs. Wage Inflation
- Wage Inflation Vs. Unemployment
- Wage Inflation Vs. CPI
- M2 Vs. CPI
- Capacity Utilization Vs. CPI
- Capacity Utilization Vs. Unemployment
- New Homes Vs. Rents
- Lumber Vs. Housing
- Savings Vs. Housing
- Housing Starts Vs. Unemployment
- Initial Jobless Claims Vs. S&P
- Consumer Sentiment Vs. S&P
- Durable Goods Orders Vs. S&P
- Building Permit Vs. Housing
- Construction Vs. Housing
- Adjustable Mortgage Vs. Fed Funds Rate
- Fixed Mortgage Rates Vs. 30 Year Bond Yield
- MZM Vs. 10 Year Bond Yield
- Gold Vs. 10 Year Bond Yield
- Dow/Gold Ratio
- GOFO Vs. Gold
- Gold/Silver COMEX
Posts tonen met het label withdrawals. Alle posts tonen
Posts tonen met het label withdrawals. Alle posts tonen
zaterdag 6 februari 2016
zondag 21 december 2014
SGE Withdrawals - Unilateral SGEI Trading Volume < Chinese Gold Demand < SGE Withdrawals
I wish Chinese gold demand could be given weekly through the SGE, but the Chinese are making it complicated with the opening of the SGEI. Ok, so let's follow Koos Jansen's new technique:
SGE Withdrawals - Total Unilateral SGEI Trading Volume < Chinese gold demand < SGE Withdrawals
This is because the weekly SGE withdrawal numbers include SGEI withdrawals, which can either be real Chinese gold demand or foreign gold demand. So the Chinese gold demand lies between the SGE number and the SGE - SGEI number.
The reasoning is given here:
Gold bought by domestic banks on the SGEI and withdrawn from the “International Board” Certified Vault in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) to be imported into the mainland is not required to go through the “Main Board”/SGE (click here for an introduction on the SGE, SGEI, IB, MB, FTZ, etc). Meaning: the volume traded on the SGEI can distort Chinese wholesale gold demand measured by SGE withdrawals numbers. This is because we simply don’t know who the SGEI traders are; domestic banks from the mainland that buy and withdrawal gold to import – in this case withdrawals would count as Chinese demand – or for example buyers from Singapore – in this case withdrawals would be exported to Singapore?
That's all nice and well, but if something were to happen to Koos someday, how can we calculate it ourselves?
First go to this site, which gives weekly SGE withdrawal numbers and SGEI trading volumes: http://www.sge.com.cn/xqzx/xqzb/
The SGEI trading volume can be found in 3 products. The International Board has launched three new physical products international customers can buy and sell. So you need to make the sum of the trading volume of all three products and make it unilateral:
Example: Let's calculate Chinese gold demand for week 50.
Week 50:
SGEI Unilateral Trading Volume = (0.1+1.3+12313.4+4.1)/2 kg = 6159 kg.
SGE Withdrawals = 50027.5 kg
50027.5-6159 kg < Chinese Gold Demand < 50027.5 kg
Or
43868.5 kg < Chinese Gold Demand < 50027.5 kg
SGE Withdrawals - Total Unilateral SGEI Trading Volume < Chinese gold demand < SGE Withdrawals
This is because the weekly SGE withdrawal numbers include SGEI withdrawals, which can either be real Chinese gold demand or foreign gold demand. So the Chinese gold demand lies between the SGE number and the SGE - SGEI number.
The reasoning is given here:
Gold bought by domestic banks on the SGEI and withdrawn from the “International Board” Certified Vault in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) to be imported into the mainland is not required to go through the “Main Board”/SGE (click here for an introduction on the SGE, SGEI, IB, MB, FTZ, etc). Meaning: the volume traded on the SGEI can distort Chinese wholesale gold demand measured by SGE withdrawals numbers. This is because we simply don’t know who the SGEI traders are; domestic banks from the mainland that buy and withdrawal gold to import – in this case withdrawals would count as Chinese demand – or for example buyers from Singapore – in this case withdrawals would be exported to Singapore?
That's all nice and well, but if something were to happen to Koos someday, how can we calculate it ourselves?
First go to this site, which gives weekly SGE withdrawal numbers and SGEI trading volumes: http://www.sge.com.cn/xqzx/xqzb/
The SGEI trading volume can be found in 3 products. The International Board has launched three new physical products international customers can buy and sell. So you need to make the sum of the trading volume of all three products and make it unilateral:
- iAu100g physical product 100 gram gold bar fineness 999.9
- iAu99.99 physical product 1 kg gold ingot fineness 999.9
- iAu99.5 physical product 12.5 kg gold ingot fineness 995.0
Example: Let's calculate Chinese gold demand for week 50.
Week 50:
SGEI Unilateral Trading Volume = (0.1+1.3+12313.4+4.1)/2 kg = 6159 kg.
SGE Withdrawals = 50027.5 kg
50027.5-6159 kg < Chinese Gold Demand < 50027.5 kg
Or
43868.5 kg < Chinese Gold Demand < 50027.5 kg
Abonneren op:
Posts (Atom)


