Jobs market is deteriorating

The latest ADP employment numbers are out and it doesn't look rosy.

In particular, jobs from productive segments all went down (construction, manufacturing and mining), while jobs from non-productive segments went up (education, finance, leisure).

This tells me that the U.S. GDP is losing its significance as a measure of productivity.

 

 

On the other hand though, the latest non farm payrolls report showed a huge increase in jobs. So we're seeing a large discrepancy here.

ADP Report Vs. Unemployment Rate

Today we also found the ADP jobs numbers for the month of January 2013 and it came out to 192000 jobs. This is pretty good, but if you look at the trendline on Chart 1 we are still going down.

Job growth isn't keeping up with the rise in population, we need to have at least a payroll number above 200000 to reduce the unemployment rate.

The declining unemployment rate (blue dots) is not to be trusted because if it were real, the red bars would be going up, not down.

Chart 1: ADP numbers Vs. Unemployment