Treasury Cash Depleted By August

Danielle Dimartino Booth says the TGA account will be depleted in a few months and this is without the reverse repo problems accounted for. A lot of debt will need to be issued.

 

Shale Gas Bankrupt

At $30/barrel oil, the whole shale gas complex is bankrupt.

If shale gas goes bankrupt, U.S.A. will not be energy neutral anymore. Trade deficits will probably skyrocket to above $1 trillion per annum.

 

All of this oil production will cease to exist.

Is Deutsche Bank Bankrupt?

Very informative video on Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank is going down

This is Deutsche Bank's stock.

And these are 10 year U.S. treasuries.

Let's zoom in to 2016:

That's a very nice correlation right? So if the 10 year U.S. treasuries break downwards, what do you get? We get a plunge in Deutsche Bank's stock. The question is: "Will the 10 year U.S. yield plunge?". I say yes, because we see that the U.S. is going into a recession with very slow GDP growth. Also, Janet Yellen will need to use negative interest rates to combat the plunging yields. If Janet raises interest rates, we will see a flattening yield curve and even lower 10 year U.S. yields. Or Janet needs to initiate QE4, which will make 10 year bond yields go up again against a weakening dollar.

None of this will happen soon, so I expect Deutsche Bank to go the way of Lehman Brothers soon. Watch out, because we are hitting downside resistance here.

Bankrupt Cities in the U.S.

Let's follow the bankruptcy of cities in the U.S. Maybe a trend can be found.

Table 1: Bankruptcies in U.S.