Money Velocity Vs. Bond Yield

This page is created to monitor the Money Zero Maturity Velocity (MZM velocity) Vs. 10 Year U.S. Treasuries.

Historically, both are correlated. If money velocity picks up (blue chart), 10 Year U.S. Treasury Yields will rise (red chart).

 

 

Money Velocity Picking Up?

There are rumors that money velocity is picking up. As I said before, money velocity is very important to watch as it is correlated to U.S. Treasury Yields. If money velocity goes up, yields go up.

We will discuss 2 things:

1) Is GDP going up?

2) Is MZM growth slowing down?

Go here to find out.

The Status on China

We already know China is slowing down, because their imports of key commodities have been going down lately. I summarized this already in this article. We saw that industrial commodity imports were declining, while gold imports and U.S. treasury buying skyrocketed. I believe China has enough tools to keep their real estate and stock markets from falling. To find out how, go to my analysis here.

Goldonomic.com: About Hyperinflation

Just found an interesting site that gives information about the correlation between hyperinflation and money velocity.

=> http://www.goldonomic.com/inflation.htm

The key measure to follow is money velocity of the broad measures of money supply M3 or MZM (which resembles M3). When money velocity spikes, hyperinflation has set in as people scramble for tangible assets.

Froom Goldonomic.com:
"Hyperinflation starts when the public is unwilling to hold the money for more than the time it is needed to trade it for something tangible to avoid further loss. A good indicator that Hyperinflation has started will be a sudden increase in the Velocity of Money. [ P = M x V ]. This alone can increase the general level of prices. Even with a falling M3!"


So be warned, when the following graph spikes up, it's time to get into real tangible assets! You can see that in 1980 we had the hyperinflationary crisis where gold spiked into a bubble when everyone feared inflation.

Chart 1: MZM Money Stock

Velocity of MZM slowing down

In one of my previous articles I monitored the velocity of MZM, to see if treasuries were likely to go up or down. The new numbers of velocity of MZM are out today at 1.434 (Q1 2012), down from 1.451 (Q4 2011). To see what this means for your portfolio, go to: Velocity of MZM going down.