woensdag 29 april 2015

Stock screener: Take 6: XIN: Xinyuan Real Estate

Remember my post on KYN, SIMO, TAICYTYG, EWZ? All have been doing well. EWZ has given a handsome dividend while appreciating 10%, I'm amazed how well this stock screener idea works.

Track record 5-0.Time to move on.

If I don't have any ideas anymore what to buy, I use the stock screener.

What you want to do is filter on 4 attributes: market cap, P/E, dividend yield and percentage change.

1) Market Cap: do not choose small companies as they are mostly fraudulent or don't have sustainable earnings. Don't choose big companies because these are not volatile enough to get fast profits from. I'd filter between 200 million and 4 billion.

2) P/E ratio: choose the companies with the lowest P/E ratio, these companies are dirt cheap while still having earnings. Cheap is below P/E of 5. But do not choose below P/E of 2 because those are mostly companies that are going bankrupt or have bad growth.

3) Dividend yield: always choose companies that have dividends, because these companies have real earnings and can prove they have sustainable earnings to reward investors. The higher the better of course, but don't push it above 7% as those companies probably don't have the money to pay out dividends on a regular basis. I'd go for companies with dividends between 3% and 7%.

4) Volatility: don't choose companies that are so volatile. Maximum year over year change should be between the 20% range.

We use the exact same parameters as above and our next winner is: Xinyuan Real Estate (XIN). Very nice earnings 20 million in the last quarter, which means a P/E of 5-6. Dividend is increasing in time, it is 6% now. Dividend is also stable, they started to pay out 3 years ago. Is trading below book ratio, probably because of the so called China real estate bust, which is totally bogus. I'm buying it. Technically, the stock is in break out phase. Let's go for 6-0.

dinsdag 28 april 2015

Greece Bank Deposits Flight

Greek bank deposit flights are continuing and we can see that here in the column of "other euro area residents". It's a very easy way to check if there is a deposit flight going on in your European country. (I checked Belgium and we are pretty stable)


Greek deposits went from 155 billion euro to 147 billion euro month over month. They probably all went to Germany.

But overall there is an increase in total deposits when MFIs are counted in. The Bank of Greece probably started confiscating deposits. So basically, people are running away with their money (drop in other euro area resident deposits), but the central bank is preventing that by confiscating it (rise in MFI deposits).

The total amount of deposits look like this, red chart is Greece: The chart rises due to an increase in central bank deposits.


So how to use this? I would just keep in mind how to check on the deposit flight via the tables and at some point, when interest rates get too low, people will automatically flee from their banks. Who wants to have money in a bank with negative interest rates? Don't be the last to wake up...

zaterdag 25 april 2015

Oil going back into backwardation soon

Oil is going back into backwardation as predicted and this results in higher oil prices.

Gold/Silver Premiums Update

On the premium front in precious metals we see that the trend is still going up and I'm pleased to say that silver is a good buy at this time. Here is why.

Silver premiums are going to hit new highs in the coming weeks, both at APMEX, silver miners and Shanghai.



There is a huge chance of a short squeeze in silver next week.

The gold front is a bit less interesting. No short squeezes on the horizon and the premiums are flat, nothing special has changed.