Inflation shifts the stock - bond correlation.
maandag 30 mei 2022
zaterdag 28 mei 2022
Low Aluminum Stock
Aluminum is in short supply, this metal could shoot up quickly. Buy Alcoa, Rio Tinto.
donderdag 26 mei 2022
Brazil Potash Supply and Demand
Brazil potash demand is rising even while supply has diminished. This is extremely bullish for the potash price.
Moreover, supply disruptions aren't as severe as thought. Belarus supply has been disrupted in half, but Russian supply has not changed. Israel has replaced Belarusian supply.
This means that the rise in potash price isn't fully attributable to the lack of supply, but needs to be found in the rising food price.
woensdag 25 mei 2022
Silver Supply and Demand Outlook
Silver supply is going to rise.
Even in the long run, silver demand is insignificant (compared to copper demand). As copper demand and supply tenfolds, silver waste product supply will rise tremendously and push down silver prices.
Yardeni decreases outlook for S&P500
Yardeni decreases his outlook on the S&P500 from 4800-5700 to 4400-4950.
New:
Old:
dinsdag 24 mei 2022
Crop Yields Are Stagnating
Crop yields are stagnating while the population is still growing. This means that we need either better technology, more farmland or people will need to eat less. If not, then food prices will continue to rise.
maandag 23 mei 2022
zondag 22 mei 2022
Solar Minimum
The solar minimum is coming and will affect sun availability.
Lower sun will lead to lower growing season length.
Lower sun will lead to lower crop growth rate.
The solar minimum will also lead to lower temperatures and frost, which leads to lower crop yields.
China Food Inventories
Why does 25% of global population (China) need 60% of global food inventories?
When we look at the food inflation numbers it's clear that China is the standard.
So that means China is right and the rest of the world has too few food.
To get back to equilibrium, the rest of the world would need to 4x food inventory.
This is massive and tells us that food prices are going to rise a lot in the future.
zaterdag 21 mei 2022
vrijdag 20 mei 2022
Potash is cheap
Potash is historically not that expensive when you compare it to the yield gain.
The reason for this is because food prices have gone up faster than potash prices.
donderdag 19 mei 2022
woensdag 18 mei 2022
Nenner says natural gas is going up in the next 5 years
Nenner says food and natural gas will go up (18:00). Oil will go to $250/barrel. You know what that means for food/fertilizers.
Bond yields have peaked
The 10 year yield has peaked. The result will be that the Fed will stop hiking rates which will start a rally in gold.
dinsdag 17 mei 2022
vrijdag 13 mei 2022
donderdag 12 mei 2022
dinsdag 10 mei 2022
Food Price Index Vs. Fertilizers
The global food price index is a leading indicator for fertilizer prices. The green line is the Gregg Ibendahl ammonia forecaster, which is a leading indicator for fertilizers.
Fertilizer price index can be found here.
Potash is historically not that expensive when you compare it to the yield gain. Watch the potash cost curve.
Watch the affordability index.
Natural gas is correlated to ammonia and fertilizer prices.
Fertilizers are correlated to food prices/production.
Watch the sulphur price as it is correlated to fertilizers.
Check the drought report. Higher drought means higher food prices.
The stock to use ratio is a leading indicator for food prices. Whenever stock to use ratio drops, food prices rise.
The crop yield is a leading indicator for food prices. Whenever crop yields drop, food prices rise. Global crop yields can be found here.
Watch the trend in meat consumption, which is the main demand for feed.
Watch the trend in growing season. As the solar minimum approaches in 2025, the growing season will drop and lead to less food production and higher food prices.
Farmland values are correlated to fertilizers.
U.S. farmland values can be found here.
Brazilian farmers use more and more fertilizers per ha.
Brazil potash imports.
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