PBOC Liquidity Vs. Gold

The Chinese are hitting the brakes. 

M2 Vs. Gold

A retest to go higher.

Middle East onshore oil inventories dropping

Middle Eastern onshore oil (million barrels) are getting exported now. 

Iranian oil exports are rising (mbpd).

M3 Vs. Gold

Gold follows M3. 

M3 growth projection is 5%-8% per year.

Dedollarization changes the M3 to Gold ratio. So gold should go up due to the combination of dedollarization and M3 growth.

A plausible scenario is the following. Dedollarization and lower M3 to Gold Ratio.

Comparative Inventory Oil

Comparative inventory deficit is below Ukraine level. Oil might top out.

Stocks Vs. Money Supply

The money supply is boosting stocks with a lag. 

CTA Conditional Flows for Oil, Copper and Gold

Oil and copper have negative conditional CTA flows, while gold could go higher. 

AI prompt for Gemini:

Use the latest data reports from Goldman Sachs and Kpler. Don't use simulated data, use actual data, search for a report on CTA conditional flows online. Act as an institutional macro strategist and quantitative data analyst specializing in systematic fund flows. Provide a comprehensive update on the 1-month CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) conditional flows and programmatic net positioning ($bn) for Gold, Silver, Copper, and Crude Oil (WTI or Brent). For EACH individual asset, you must provide a clean, high-utility ASCII data chart mapping out the "1m Conditional Projections ($bn)" alongside a detailed structural breakdown. Ensure your response for each asset adheres to the following strict 4-part framework: 1. VISUAL CONDITIONAL CHART (ASCII): Generate an ASCII line graph modeled exactly after the Goldman Sachs multi-asset flow grid. - The Y-axis must represent Net Length ($bn). - The X-axis must plot a 3-month historical timeline ("Simulated Realized Flows") leading into the current month, split by a clear vertical divider line (|) into a 1-month forward looking window ("Conditional Expected Flows"). - Clearly draw and label the diverging forward pathways inside the chart using text lines for: [Up Big], [Up Small], [Flat Market], [Down Small], and [Down Big]. 2. Current Positioning Estimate: What is the current estimated aggregate net length (in billions of dollars or maximum position capacity) held by systematic trend-followers? Is positioning historically stretched, flat, or short? 3. 1-Month Forward Conditional Projections: Under the standard 5-scenario matrix, describe the projected net length adjustments over the next 30 days. Highlight where the visual asymmetry lies (e.g., is there a steep "liquidation cliff" on the downside or a "buy-the-breakout" trigger on the upside?). 4. Active Algorithmic Triggers & Stop Levels: Identify the exact technical parameters (e.g., 20-day, 50-day, or 200-day moving averages, or specific price points) that will trigger non-discretionary mechanical buying or selling waves. 5. Volatility Regime & Position Sizing: How is current realized or implied volatility affecting the CTA models' risk-targeting mechanisms? Are expanding or compressing volatility bands forcing automatic position reduction or expansion? Format the output cleanly using bold headers for each asset and include a summary table at the very beginning comparing the 1-month directional flow bias (Upward/Downward/Neutral) across all four complexes. Avoid generic market commentary; focus strictly on technical momentum, programmatic flow execution, and systematic risk thresholds.

Yardeni hikes SP500 target

New: 

Old:

Sprott Inc. Update

Buys: Mako Mining, Santacruz Silver, tankers, silver miners.

Sells: Dolly Varden, Novagold, Ero Copper, SSR Mining,...

 

Oil Vs. Inventory

Oil should be at $75. The market is pricing in $30 in premium.

 

Grasberg restart delayed

Grasberg produces 1% of global silver supply. 

Gold as percentage of central bank reserves

This gold bull market is far from over. 

Global Money Supply Vs. Gold

Money supply keeps rising, so will gold.

Oil Upside Targets

New Goldman oil targets. 

SGE Silver Deliveries Rising

Shanghai SGE silver deliveries are flowing again. Will silver bottom out? Buy Sotkamo or Starcore to get leverage to silver. 

Gold during crisis

Gold should be fine. 

China Buying Silver Dip

China March 2026 silver imports at record high.

 

Investment attractiveness index - political risk

Jurisdictional risk.

Oil imports: Americas-Europe-Asia

The Americas are fine.

$100 Oil Forever

Energy is a good investment.

Lantern Daily Economic Index Vs. Bond Yields

The LDEI is leading bond yields.

Silver Supply and Demand - Surplus and Deficit

Is silver going into a new reality? 

https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-silver-prices/

https://www.fundsindia.com/blog/mf-research/silver-lining-is-it-time-to-add-silver-to-your-portfolio/32139

Oil price increases in various countries

South Africa is in trouble.

Turkey selling gold

They can't keep selling forever...

Federal Reserve: To Hike Or Not To Hike

If Powell doesn't listen to the market, gold will soar. 

OPEC Cut and Gold

The biggest OPEC cut in history should be very bullish gold.

Diesel and Crude Deficits

USA exports a lot of fuel. Neighbours like Colombia, Brazil and Mexico will be supplied adequately. Kazakhstan is self-sufficient. South Africa and Australia are in trouble. 

Latin American countries have plenty crude oil. But Australia and South Africa are short of crude. Kazakhstan remains self-sufficient.

Bonds Vs. Gold

Gold is going to outperform bonds for at least another 3 years.  

Pierre Lassonde Gold Indicators

Pierre Lassonde's top indicators for gold: 

1) Budget deficit 

2) Trade deficit 

3) Central bank buying

4) Stagflation 

5) Geopolitical instability 

6) New architecture of global financial order

https://x.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/2035103104413348027?s=20

Oil recession

It's coming.

James Hamilton: Oil demand elasticity

Hormuz destroys 10% of supply. Oil demand destruction needs oil at $140. Hamilton.

Hormuz Oil Forecast

If Hormuz stays closed, oil will keep rising. 

The disruption is unprecedented.

Until Hormuz reopens. The oil futures curve points to a much lower oil price if that happens.

Stagflation Winners: Gold and Oil

Oil supply disruptions benefit oil and gold.

Oil Demand Destruction

Oil demand destruction scenarios. Oil basically can't go above $100 in less than 60 days. 

Hormuz Closure

Watch the Hummus.