dinsdag 20 november 2012

Bullish on Precious Metals

One very good indicator for higher precious metals prices is the lease rate.

As I predicted here, it was time to buy gold and silver. And now it's completely obvious that they will do good as lease rates are steadily increasing. I doubled my position in silver.

Chart 1: Gold Lease Rates

I wish I could show the silver lease rates, but Kitco is cheating on us, their chart only shows a flat line...

Chart 2: Silver Lease Rates (flat lines since 2 November 2012)
But all we need is the gold lease rate and then just extrapolate it to silver lease rates.

8 opmerkingen:

  1. Note that from mid aug to oct lease rates dropped and gold rose. Why do you think this is reliably predictive?

    1. Note that there is a delay between lease rate and gold price. So you just follow the lease rate and then you will know that the gold price will follow a few months later. That's the key. You can predict it.

      Lease rates go up, bullion banks need to buy back the gold and give it to central banks. There is a delay, that delay is the rise in price of gold a few months later.

    2. The same in the other way, lease rates go down, there is more manipulation from the bullion banks to sell the gold into the market. With a delay you will see prices plunge.

    3. Of course you need to see the big picture too. Lease rates are only 1 indicator, other indicators are:

      Golden cross technical
      Global balance sheet expansion
      overpriced bonds and stocks
      end of operation twist
      consolidation in gold market
      CME physical silver dropping
      mining supply to contract 2%
      demand to rise in 2014
      capacity utilization of mining going to 90%
      silver deficit in 2013
      Soros, David Morgan, Paulson buying gold
      China buying record amounts of gold
      Chinese new year starting soon
      and many other things I forget to mention.

    4. (gold price not having kept up with inflation production costs of mining)

    5. gold/silver ratio about to break down from 50 to 16.

  2. Good points. On the silver chart the brown 6 month lease has a strange property (dip and now flatlined). Is this an error or is does it have a specific meaning?