The non-farm payroll number is a leading indicator for the unemployment rate. Check the economic tracker to predict the NFP numbers.
Watch the household employment level vs. non-farm payrolls. Household employment level surveys actually include small businesses unlike non-farm payrolls. Household employment is a leading indicator as small businesses adapt much faster than large businesses.
There is another way to calculate the non-farm payroll numbers and this is called the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) data. When you subtract hires and separations from each other, you get the change in non-farm payroll numbers.
Change in NFP = Hires - Separations.
The Beveridge Curve states that the unemployment rate will rise when job vacancies drop below 5%.
Leading indicator for U.S. unemployment can be derived from the states data.
Distribution between native and foreign workers.
A good way to forecast the unemployment rate is to look at the S&P Global U.S. services PMI employment, reported via the flash PMI.
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