woensdag 14 mei 2014

Silver goes into deficit in 2013

David Morgan forecasted a silver deficit in 2014, well we don't even have to wait for the 2014 numbers, because 2013 already had a silver deficit.

We have the new numbers hot off the press. 


As you can see below, total supply dropped from 1005.3 to 978.1 million ounces. While demand has gone up from 954.4 to 1081.1 million ounces. You know what that means. When something goes into deficit, the price has to go up to balance supply and demand.

Don't forget that silver supply from mines has gone up in 2013, but is expected to go down from 2017 onwards.
 

Silver Supply and Demand


Let's calculate the upside: price rise = (100/(1-Demand decrease)) - 100
 
 = (100/(1- ((1081.1-978.1)/1081.1))) - 100 = 11% price rise

Not too shabby, but who knows how big the deficit will become in 2014...

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