Merk Webinar: Black Swans?

I attended the Merk Webinar today and here is a summary of what I picked up.

- Japan's government bonds are being crowded out by central banks.
- VIX has been coming down, which signals overcomplacency.
- Terrorism has increased bets on Brexit.
- Elections can have effect: e.g. trade wars which will be negative for deficit countries like U.S.
- U.S. dollar will weaken on trade wars.
- Margin debt is peaking.
- Chinese yuan is leading indicator for S&P.
- Bearish Japanese yen.