donderdag 9 juni 2016

Deutsche Bank is going down

This is Deutsche Bank's stock.

And these are 10 year U.S. treasuries.

Let's zoom in to 2016:

That's a very nice correlation right? So if the 10 year U.S. treasuries break downwards, what do you get? We get a plunge in Deutsche Bank's stock. The question is: "Will the 10 year U.S. yield plunge?". I say yes, because we see that the U.S. is going into a recession with very slow GDP growth. Also, Janet Yellen will need to use negative interest rates to combat the plunging yields. If Janet raises interest rates, we will see a flattening yield curve and even lower 10 year U.S. yields. Or Janet needs to initiate QE4, which will make 10 year bond yields go up again against a weakening dollar.

None of this will happen soon, so I expect Deutsche Bank to go the way of Lehman Brothers soon. Watch out, because we are hitting downside resistance here.

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