maandag 8 augustus 2016

Leading indicators suggest recession coming

With the stock market at all time highs, backed by strong July jobs numbers where 255000 jobs were added, let's contemplate on what to expect in the coming months. Jobs numbers are considered to be a lagging indicator, so it doesn't reflect the actual situation. So I will be going over the leading indicators in this article.

First of all, each month the St. Louis Fed reports the leading index on its site. The leading indicator for June trended down. So we can predict that the economy is not doing that well. The coincident indicator is trending down as well. So the actual situation isn't that good either.

I will briefly discuss the following leading indicators and there are quite a lot of them: bond yields, ISM manufacturing PMI, lumber prices, building permits, trade deficit, consumer sentiment, art prices, employment to population ratio, fed funds rate, debt to GDP, corporate earnings, GDP output gap, yield curve, credit spread, capacity utilization, business inventory to sales ratio.

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