A good way to predict recessions is to look at credit spreads between corporate bonds and treasuries.
The 30 year mortgage bond typically follows the BBB rated corporate bond yield.
The 10 year treasury bond typically follows the AAA rated corporate bond yield.
When these diverge from each other (for example in 2008 and in 2015), a recession is likely to occur as people flee from corporate bonds to the safety of treasuries.
The 30 year mortgage bond typically follows the BBB rated corporate bond yield.
The 10 year treasury bond typically follows the AAA rated corporate bond yield.
When these diverge from each other (for example in 2008 and in 2015), a recession is likely to occur as people flee from corporate bonds to the safety of treasuries.
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