zondag 3 november 2013

Copper Deficit in China

The latest contango report shows that China has a copper deficit:
CONTANGO WATCH: Copper's almost 0.90 percent narrowing has brought its current cost in line with its historical average. The move comes on the back of a price drop of more than $50 for the November and December contracts from last week, which ranges up past $75 near the back end of the curve.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported on an expected surplus that has yet to appear. China could be the culprit.Mineweb reported that despite warehouse numbers that would indicate a current surplus, French bank Natixis believes China is actually in a copper deficit based on anecdotal evidence of Chinese destocking.
"If, as our models suggest, Chinese destocking accounted for around 300,000 tons of copper early this year, measures of consumption based on end-user demand rather than apparent demand would give us a deficit for the year if anything from 60,000 to 225,000 tonnes," Natixis said.

 As you can see here, we have a had a huge drain in copper stock at LME, suggesting the same. So I believe the commodity market might rebound on this news.

My contango report also shows that we may have an intermediate bottom as we go into backwardation (red chart going down).

Basically, buy the commodities as Mineweb reports: 
It is difficult to know whether or not this is an accurate view. But if it proves to be so, it could result in unexpectedly higher prices for the red metal over the next few months.

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